Again I'm waiting on new track at 10 PM. Here's what I'm seeing. Recon is finding lower pressure which usually means higher wind speeds. The IR (infrared) satellite loop is starting to see an eye pop out with new storms firing around center. That was supposed to happen as intensity models bring Dorian to a Cat. 4 (130 MPH+) before landfall. But where will landfall be? Do we believe the models? Let's go back to Hurricane Harvey in 2017. Models brought it to lower Texas coast as a Cat. 4 and moved it inland and slowed it down with a loop indicating super heavy rain totals. Models totally verified. Now to Dorian. Models bring Dorian to Florida coast as a Cat. 4 and then slow it down. there are some differences in landfall, but the slowing down means super heavy rain totals are coming for much of Florida and then Georgia & the Carolinas. I would be shocked to see a radical shift in the 10 PM NHC track. Also, several models now say another system will form over the SW Gulf while Dorian nears Florida. Geez, nothing to worry about but lots to talk about. Several systems are predicted to develop way out in the Atlantic next week. Just what this time of year considers "normal".
OK, it's in, the latest from NHC and the track is the same stalling the storm between Lakeland & Orlando by next Tuesday. Yikes, we will have a long time to watch this system. I don't have much to add except I noticed the error cone still covers all of Florida, which tells me confidence is low at days 4 & 5 and there remains great UNCERTAINTY in the final landfall. Where that happens means a great deal on who gets the strongest winds and heaviest rains. Right now, Florida and the SE coastal states are the ones under the gun. This will be a long waiting game for many. There are NO indications Dorian will ever be a concern for us. Stay tuned! Next update probably Friday PM.
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