Sunday, August 25, 2019

Heaviest Rains Staying Offshore...

All day heavy rains have tried to move inland along the Louisiana coast but they quickly weaken as they try to head north.  NWS still has a Flash Flood Watch up as there is the potential for 2-3" rain totals through Monday morning.  However, what I'm seeing is the greatest lightning strikes and colder cloud tops shifting due east and not heading inland.  There is an upper swirl/disturbance moving across Arkansas tonight and that might be the trigger for some storms after midnight?   However, once that passes us by, I expect Monday PM to become Pt. Sunny with only a stray shower or two.  Tuesday looks mainly dry before another round of storms arrives late Wednesday ahead of a cold front that should dry us out for late week.

Invest 98L has yet to show any development and, if it does, will be way off the Carolina coasts Tuesday & Wednesday.  Tropical Storm Dorian is slowly getting stronger and NHC brings it briefly to a Cat. 1 on Wednesday south of Puerto Rico.  On their current projected path, Dorian moves over the tall (10,000'+) mountains of the Dominican Republic weakening it back to a depression.   After that, it should make the turn east of Florida, but that turn is over a week away and lots could happen to change the NHC track.  Of course the bloggers will latch on to any computer model that on day 10 says Dorian will be in the Gulf.   Having been in this business for 40 1/2 decades, I know not to jump on anything out beyond 5 days, let alone 10-14.     Let's just stay away of Dorian, especially if you have weekend plans taking you to the east coast.  Stay tuned!

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