Today's New Orleans Advocate had a good story regarding how the National Hurricane Center has improved their accuracy over the past 20-30 years to where their track forecasts at 3 days is as good as their old 5 day forecast. Which got me thinking of how we use to track hurricanes when I entered the business in 1971. We had no GOES Satellites providing us with smooth loops to see how a storm was developing. We had to piece together multiple passes of the Polar orbiting satellite to give us ONE picture of what a hurricane looked like from space. Looking back, kinda primitive, but back then we were thrilled! Yes we did have the Recon aircraft (Hurricane Hunters) from Keesler AFB along with a stray ship report or two, but that was it. No computer models to help us predict the track, just the skill of the individuals down at the NHC (National Hurricane Center). Remember how each television station offered their own tracking map for viewers to plot coordinates? Geez, now it's automatically done and plotted out in the future. No more tracking maps! Thankfully technology has made forecasts more accurate and understandable. Computer graphics (which came out in the late 70s) now show impacts from storm surge, arrival of tropical storm forecast winds and where the greatest probabilities are regarding landfall. Unfortunately, what most TV broadcasters don't do is give their opinion anymore. I still believe some folks want to know what does Bob think? or David? or Bruce?
Last night I indicated it appeared to me the heavy rains were staying offshore and indeed they did. The computer models were not very accurate. We are getting some passing storms this afternoon, but the bulk of the really bad weather is to our north and east. Tuesday into Wednesday will be mostly dry before a round of storms plows through ahead of a cold front Wednesday night into Thursday. Much drier air will follow the front for this weekend.
Updating the Tropics...Erin hasn't been named yet, but the daylight (visible) satellite loop has a well defined circulation way east of the Carolina Coast. Her circulation remains exposed (no storms around center) due to west wind shear, but it's only a matter of time before the shear weakens and storms wrap around the circulation. Of greater interest is Tropical Storm Dorian approaching Barbados this afternoon. NHC still believes he'll become a hurricane once in the eastern Caribbean and take a track more to the NW in time. RIGHT NOW, he continues almost due west , which would take him across the southern Caribbean which has an unfavorable environment for development. NHC has Dorian nipping the western coast of Puerto Rico and the eastern coast of the Dominican Republic moving into the Bahamas and then towards Florida. That is still over a week away and lots can happen to change that track. Several long range models bring Dorian into the Eastern Gulf for the middle of NEXT week. You already know my feelings on the accuracy of models 10-14 days out so let's not join the hype machine that many bloggers treasure. For now, chances for Dorian ever reaching the Gulf and being our problem seem slim, but not zero. It's what we do every Labor Day weekend...track Tropical Storms and/or hurricanes somewhere. It's not the "new normal", it's just the typical peak of tropical activity. Stay tuned!
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