Yesterday I talked about the Tropics needing the "switch" to flip for activity to increase and that for the next 10-14 days, there would be no flip from off to on. Today's models continue to show nothing happening for the next 2 weeks and that gets us into the last week in August. Keep that in mind when you look at the updated NOAA Hurricane predictions issued this morning. They have increased their probability for an above normal season from 30% to 45%. That still means there is a 55% chance for either a normal or below normal season. So far we have had 2 named storms and NOAA predicts 10-17 total. IF the tropics stay quiet for another 2 weeks, that would mean September & October would have to have the "switch" flip to on in a big way. My guess is the total number of storms will be on their low end (10-12) rather than the high end (15-17). The reason NOAA thinks the switch will flip is the El Nino is gone meaning the wind shear over the Tropics should lessen. For us to reach the 17 number, we would have to have 6-7 named storms in both September & October as November typically only has 1-2. Possible? Yes, but highly unlikely. NOAA's main point in their update is this season still has a long way to go, but we all know that.
Locally, we have some typical summer storms around along with our usual August heat & humidity. I've noticed the upper high that was centered over the 4 corners earlier this week has shifted more over Texas. But this is NOT a strong upper high/ridge like we've seen in previous summers. IF it continues to drift closer to us, I suspect the number of PM Storms will decrease, but not go away completely. This is just a terrible feeling time of the year when the temperatures are stifling, the humidity suffocating & the cooling from any showers very brief. The transition to Fall is often painfully slow and I expect this year to be no different. We need to stay strong, stay hydrated, stay patient and stay tuned!
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