You know things are totally boring when Jim Cantore gives up his daily Tropical Update to Dr. Rick Knabb and Stephanie Abrams. Since there is absolutely nothing going on in the Atlantic Basin, Caribbean Sea & Gulf of Mexico, plus models are depicting nothing happening for the next 10-14 days, what can you talk about? Dr. Knabb rightly pointed out that there have been many recent past years (2000,2002,2004) that had very quiet June-Julys into early August, but then the switch flips and Mid August-September can bring 10-12 named storms. RIGHT NOW, there are no indications of that "switch" flipping anytime soon. The favorable (rising air) phase of the MJO is over the western Pacific and that's where all the action is. Main point here is there is a long way (8-10 weeks) to go before we can start to feel safe from a major hurricane threat this season. Historically, the peak of activity is around Sept. 10th.
The upper level high, that was over the 4 corners region, has shifted farther to the east and is expected to keep drifting over us. However, the core of the heat should remain back to our west. Our only relief into the weekend will come from several upper disturbances that rotate around the upper high that trigger T-Storm complexes. David pointed out 94-97 highs can be expected for the next 5 days. Whew! One week of August down, 3 1/2 half left to go.
The Mississippi River at the Carrollton gauge finally fell below 13 feet this morning and will be below 12 feet by late Sunday. Projections have it under 10 feet by early September, the heart of hurricane season. Driving across Lake Pontchartrain today, I didn't notice any floating mats of algae like I did several weeks ago, The healing process has begun but it will take many more weeks before crabs, shrimp & fish show up in their usual spots. Stay tuned!
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