During my 4+ decades tracking hurricanes, I’ve seen how conservative the NHC is in making major track changes. They hate to flip-flop with each new model run so usually they just “tweak” the centerline track position. Not overnight. I mentioned in my last post 3 scenarios, one being a shift to the east BEFORE Dorian reaches FLA. NHC now has that scenario. Does it mean FLA. is spared? Not yet since much of the state is still in the cone. Plus, the turn hasn’t happened yet! (Remember mass + momentum equation). Dorian is nearing Cat. 5 and will be harder to make radical turn. But that’s what the models say will happen. Sure the threat has lessened for FLA. but it’s not zero. He has a spectacular satellite presentation and is a beast. Let’s hope the model trends prove correct. Oh by the way, NHC is giving a small swirl north of Cuba a 20% chance for development over the western Gulf next week. Geez, stay tuned!
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