Several years ago at one of the Hurricane Conferences, a "social scientist" gave a talk about how the public often is confused by the NHC centerline track forecast. He claimed folks thought if the centerline moved away from them, they were out of danger despite still being in the cone of error. The suggestion was to drop the centerline and just use the cone. Many people jumped on that bandwagon, but I was not one of them. For 38+ years I educated my viewers on the value of the centerline as, by following its movement, one can determine the "trending" (which way the track forecast is moving) that NHC is thinking. With Tropical Storm Dorian crossing very near Barbados tonight, I'm looking at where NHC is trending that centerline. On the latest advisory (4 PM) they didn't change it at all keeping it right over western Puerto Rico & the Dominican Republic and then into the Bahamas. If it continues, the centerline heads it right for Miami. That's why it's so important to follow it. Just looking at the cone often isn't much help, especially if the centerline shift is slight. I'll be watching that closely over the next several days and you can too. Just toggle the "on" button on the NHC site to include the track. Our worry time with Dorian won't happen (if ever) until early next week. TD # 6 formed this afternoon, but wind shear will keep any development a struggle. It'll stay way off the East Coast of the U.S.
Locally, T-Storms blew up right over the South Shore between 3-5 PM dumping 2-4+" of rain in less than 2 hours. More flooding happened as the intensity overwhelmed the pumping capacity once again. We could see some more storms bubble up on Tuesday and even more on Wednesday as a cold front approaches. It will give us an early Fall preview for Thursday and Friday before summer returns by Saturday & Sunday. Stay tuned!
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