Wednesday, August 21, 2019

Tropical Storm Chantal? Really!

The season's first named storm (Andrea) lasted all of 12 hours and was a waste of a name.  Barry certainly was a legit named system, however, naming a system way out in the north central Atlantic Chantal is (to me) another waste of a name.   Sure it's a low pressure system, but it formed north of 40 degrees north latitude, hardly the tropics let alone sub-tropics.    From the time I entered the business back in the early 70s, there has been a gradual shift in the naming of storms.  Back then, NHC was very deliberate, call it conservative, in making a system a named storm.  Today, any swirl that temporary (less than a half day) gets winds 35-40+,  is automatically given a name.  Why is that important?  because it gives bias to present history in trying to compare past storm eras.  I know modern technology is much better, but at least be somewhat conservative in naming a system.   Chantal could be gone as soon as tonight.

The tropics are becoming more active as NHC now gives a cluster of storms over the Bahamas a 20% chance for development off the U.S. East Coast.   An upper low over the Bay of Campeche is interacting with a slug of tropical moisture coming out of the Caribbean.  An interesting low level swirl shows up on the daylight (visible) satellite loop west of the western tip of Cuba.  There are no storms with it.  Computer models do not develop anything in the Gulf but do bring the tropical moisture into Louisiana late Thursday into Saturday.  There is the potential for 3-5"+ rainfall  and that could cause some street flooding since recent rains have soils already soaked.   Models do hint at our first cold front (Fall preview?) sneaking down for Labor Day Weekend.   That's still a ways off so don't get too excited just yet.   Stay tuned!

No comments: