I am so thankful not to have the tremendous responsibility of where Hurricane Dorian makes landfall.
His winds now measured by recon at 185 mph !!! with gusts 200+. He has NOT made the expected turn to the north that ALL computer models say will happen. Several posts back I mentioned that Dorian's track (beyond the early day wobble) was well behaved and it continues to be that. Models said he would slow down...he has slowed down (7 mph). Models say he will turn, but that hasn't happened yet as forward motion remains due west (270 degrees). He is moving over the northern Bahamas now and that interaction may do 2 things. 1) slightly disrupt circulation forcing an "eyewall replacement cycle) that weakens it some and 2) acts as a bump in the road that starts the process of the northward turn. Here are my fears. 1) the turn comes later allowing the eyewall to reach the coast anywhere from West Palm Beach all the up through north Florida into Georgia. (all within the cone of error) The latest NHC track trended a little farther back to the west. If that trend continues, it places the center line track on the coasts. 2) The upper trough, that could help Dorian make the turn, pulls away too soon leaving Dorian behind to wander/loop just off Florida's east coast for DAYS. 3) Extreme rainfall (10-20") could occur IF Dorian stalls along the coast or farther northward into Georgia & the Carolinas. It really take guts by the NHC to believe that the computer models will be correct and I salute them for a consistent message the past several days. However, I do remember a recent hurricane (Isaac 2012) that stalled as it reached the mouth of the River and pounded us for days. Models back then did not predict the stalling and, thankfully for us, he was not a Cat. 5. The next several days will be difficult times for many along our east coast. Let's hope the newer models are correct about the turn. The networks will be all over this with non-stop coverage (which they should) so we'll get to see the power of Mother Nature up close. Let's keep everyone in harm's way in our prayers.
They are other things to watch in the Tropics & southern Gulf, but none will impact us. Stay tuned
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