Gulf Looks Quiet Next 5-7 days...

As we remain in the most active tropical time of the year, the remnants of Imelda have lifted out of Texas moving to the NNE.  Hurricane Jerry still is predicted to turn away from the U.S., although he has weakened and could get closer based on the latest GFS model guidance . An area south of Hispaniola is hampered by strong wind shear and any development is not likely  The next system is  out in the Atlantic and could impact the islands & Puerto Rico next week.  Yet another system is coming off of Africa 10-14 days away from any land areas.. 

So, unless something springs up over the western Caribbean and/or Gulf during the next 7-10 day, we should reach October without any tropical threats.  Model guidance is now indicating a REAL cold front coming during the first week in October.  Fronts tend to block tropical activity from reaching us, so the deeper we can get into October, the better our odds are for no major hurricane threats here.  Hurricane Michael (Cat. 5) last year showed us we can get a strong storm even into October, and with this summer's warmth, I'll be slow to give the "Fat Lady" a call until I know for sure we are out of danger. Stay tuned!