Not much has changed in the thinking from NHC (National Hurricane Center) as they are watching an area of disorganized T-Storms over the eastern Bahamas that could/might develop and head across Florida into the northeast Gulf. What I'm seeing is a well defined upper low over the eastern Gulf that is dragging dry air over us and the Southeast with a weak surface rotation on the visible satellite loop just north of Haiti.
NHC has scheduled a recon flight tomorrow, but right now there is NOTHING to track. I'm amused when I see folks showing spaghetti model runs we do not have an "initialization point". C'mon, show the GFS or the EURO model runs, but not the guess work for Invest 95 L. I like what David said this evening. he expects 95L to become a TD before it reaches Florida late Friday. Once into the NE Gulf, that TD could strengthen into a Tropical Storm (Humberto) heading toward the MS/AL border. IF that proves reality, we stay on the dry side and will have no major impacts besides a few more showers. Let's not get carried away by the hype-sters out there. With the upper low over the Gulf, that should help steer whatever forms to the north EAST of us. NHC has increased development at 5 days to 60%. Let's see if that goes up on their next update at 7 PM. Stay tuned!
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