Tropical Watch Includes Gulf...

 Just when it looked like we had at least another week of quiet in the Tropics, Buda boom, NHC highlights an area over the eastern and central Gulf for possible development during the next 3-5 days.  There is a weak upper low over the Bahamas with a tropical surface wave interacting with it to produce disorganized T-Storms tonight.  NHC has upper the chances (30% to 40%) for development and several models now indicate  tropical depression or even a named (Humberto) storm could be in the NE Gulf for this weekend.  Hey without anything there yet, all I can tell you is computer models often give the first hint of possible development days before anything forms.  IF you have plans to head to the beaches this weekend, don't cancel plans yet, but pay close attention to future forecasts.  By Thursday we'll have a much better handle whether we have any need to worry. 

Saw this picture on Joe D'Aleo's blog (WeatherBell Analytics) showing the power of Hurricane Dorian last week.   As it sat over Grand Bahama Island for 2 days, it produced huge upwelling of cooler waters north and east of the Island.  Sure we've seen the terrible destruction videos, but I just think many of us cannot comprehend what damage these storms can cause.   We have about another 4 weeks to really worry about a big one coming our way.  Once beyond October 10th, the chance for a major hurricane making landfall in LA/MS drops to near zero as the upper level westerlies increase turning most storms well to our east.  However, we have just reached the historical day of peak tropical activity.  Until the real cold fronts start coming, we'll have to keep watching the Tropics.

Received a question about the MJO being in the not favorable (sinking air) phase for the next 2 weeks.     I was a big "fan" of the MJO as a tool for predicting tropical development.  However, during Hurricane Dorian, the MJO was not in a favorable (rising air) phase, yet he exploded into the monster we all saw. Leaves me confused, except to say development involves a lot more than warm water, favorable MJO and low wind shear.  I don't have all the answers. Stay tuned!