NHC Now Talking About Southern Gulf...

In my previous post this afternoon, I mentioned I was seeing a small low level swirl south of Cuba & west of Jamaica (Grand Cayman).  Since several models hinted at possible development in the southern Gulf, I was surprised NHC didn't at least mention it in their 2 PM tropical discussion.   Well tonight they have.



Let's not get carried away as they only give it a 10% chance for development.  It does give us a base line on what to follow over the next several days.  We'll be watching to see if they start increasing the probability later this week.   This should never be our problem since we have a large upper high coupled with a large surface high that will steer any development towards the west.   Several cold fronts are on track to finally change our record breaking heat to more typical October warmth.  Watching David tonight encouraged me to be more excited about the one coming early next week as his graphic showed a deep trough finally forming over the SE.  The cold that is making parts of the West feel winter-like will reach us on Tuesday.  Hopefully, it won't just bring the cooler air, but also a chance for some much needed rainfall.  Until then not much will be happening so I'm going fishing with Capt. Hylton.  Stay tuned!