Thursday, September 12, 2019

Tropics Ready to Explode?



NHC keeps increasing chance for development (70 to 80%) on Invest 85 L SE of the Bahamas and a recon plane is scheduled to fly out this afternoon.  Satellite loops clearly indicate some banding features beginning to form which would imply this system is starting to get better organized.  The big news overnight is the shifting in the EURO's track to the east/right keeping it off Florida's east coast (like Dorian) but then taking it northward across North Carolina and toward NYC next week.  That'll get the network news media going into overhype mode!  IF that proves to be reality, Humberto would stay out of the Gulf and we would have no impacts except to stay hot & dry.  The next few days will be a real test for the new GFS model as it is way left of the Euro and over the NE Gulf.  Let's see if it follows the Euro's shift during the next several runs.   As of now, there is nothing to track yet. We should know more later this afternoon IF the plane goes out.   Behind 95 L will be another system following on a similar track.  This could be the year (like 1954 &'55) where the storms all slam the East Coast and leave the Gulf alone.  For now we still have an upper low over the Gulf and that should steer 95 L more northward away from us.  Stay tuned!

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