Thursday, September 12, 2019

Soon to be Humberto?


One of the advances NHC implemented several years ago was the ability to issue warnings & tracks BEFORE a system develops, especially when it is close to land masses.  Even before the recon plane arrived, NHC began issuing advisories on "Potential Tropical Cyclone " (translation - soon to be Tropical Storm Humberto).  

Satellite pics are not very impressive and show disorganized clusters of T-Storms mainly over the eastern Bahamas.   From what I'm seeing on the vis loop is an open wave that has no closed surface circulation.  But that's why we have recon flights that penetrate the clouds to see if a center exists.  Based on most models (the GFS-American being the exception) NHC believes it's only a matter of time before we do have a center so they started advisories.  Based on their first track, this system should stay well to our east and be a Florida issue.  Even the potential rainfall map focuses on Florida's east coast. 
We need some rain just to break our current record breaking heat wave, but Humberto's track will keep us hot and dry.  I'll comment again later tonight.  Stay tuned!

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