The Professional Golf Association (PGA) has a promo saying..."these guys are good" with several spectacular shots by the golfers proving their point. During my 45 year broadcasting career, I can say the same thing about the guys/ladies working at SPC (Storm Prediction Center). They rarely put out areas under the high risk (Cat. 4 & 5) unless they really believe ( and 90% of the time they are right) that the risks are justified. For tomorrow and Saturday, they have placed many southern states under such high risks, including Louisiana & Mississippi.
Our high risk for severe storms doesn't happen until Saturday, so we have plenty of time to watch & prepare. Before you start wondering..."is it because of global warming?", let me show you the historical/climatology for the Gulf South at this time of the year. Clearly, severe storms often happen in January as Gulf moisture clashes with cold air. It's "normal".
So what is happening to create such a dangerous situation? First we have deep return flowing moisture coming northward off the Gulf along with lots of warm air.
There is a strong upper level swirl/storm just along the California coast that is projected to deepen as it moves across the Rockies during the next 2-3 days. You can see how that is energizing the sub-tropical jet streaking in from the Pacific.
So all the ingredients are there for a severe weather outbreak across the South. Does it mean we definitely will see damaging storms & tornadoes? Of course not as the science cannot be that precise. However, it does mean all of us should be aware & paying attention Friday PM into midday on Saturday IN CASE any warnings are issued and we need to go to our safe room.
Finally, the super cold (40-50+ below zero) remains/lingers far up north. Long range models keep hinting some of that cold will dive into the lower 48 after Jan. 20th. Before we even start worrying about a freeze threat here, we need to focus on the possible severe weather danger coming in the short term. Stay tuned!
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