During my broadcasting career I was VERY sensitive about "crying wolf" every time we had a severe weather threat. Why? Simply put, if you keep crying wolf & the wolf never comes, your viewers will eventually turn you off with a "there he goes again" attitude. The danger being, what happens if the wolf does come, but nobody believes you? Yesterday we mentioned how the folks at SPC (Storm Prediction Center) were pretty confident that Friday & Saturday would see an outbreak of severe weather. They have NOT changed that thinking today with the highest risks in East Texas into LA.AR/MS.
As previously mentioned, all the ingredients are coming together with Gulf moisture surging northward, a strong upper disturbance coming out of the Rockies and a tremendous surface temperature contrast along the frontal boundary.
The timeline for greatest danger for SE LA/MS is between 5-noon on Saturday. This will be a progressive (fast moving) system so rainfall amounts should be limited to 1-3". SPC guidance indicates a strong squall line will march out of Texas into Louisiana over night reaching us just after daybreak exciting before noon. Are we guaranteed damaging storms? Of course not, however, there is a high potential for the squall line to turn severe. I know all the local weathercasters are hyping tomorrow's event, but this time I believe the hype to be justified. Let's all pay attention and have your FOX 8 Weather App ready to alert you IF warnings are issued. Another negative is the rising Mississippi with this new round of heavy rainfall falling over a large area to our north.
The local River Forecast office is now projecting a crest near 15 feet before the end of this month. It could go higher if we have more addition storms later this month. Remember, it takes a forecast of 17 feet+ to open the Spillway again. That doesn't look likely, but we are getting too close for comfort. Another woe is the building super cold (40-50+ below) up in Canada and Alaska.
Models are suggesting a much colder pattern developing over the lower 48 beginning Jan. 20 lasting into early February. We will have lots of time to watch for an Arctic Express, but for now our focus must be on the storms coming for Saturday morning. Do you cancel outside plans for Saturday AM? Probably a good idea. If you have indoor plans (B-Day party, a wedding) you should be OK as long as we don't get into a Tornado situation. Certainly stay tuned!
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