It's The MJO Stupid...

Don't mean to steal from James Carvelle, but the reason tropical activity is getting off to a fast start is the current phase of the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation).  It is in the favorable phase (rising air) across our part of the tropics which means we will probably keep seeing more systems develop during the next several weeks.  I'd rather have it be in the rising air stage now and not in August & September.  The GFS model continues to insist on development in the western Gulf late this week and now the Euro is picking up on that too.

The top graphic was yesterday's Euro's probability for Tropical storm formation over the Bay of Campeche vs today's that has moved the threat closer to us with the bottom graphic now hinting the POSSIBILITY for hurricane develop Thursday through Saturday.   NHC is now indicating a medium (50%) chance for develop late this week in the Bay of Campeche.

Satellite pics clearly show a large rotation from the Pacific's first named storm(Amanda) that has moved inland over central America.  Look for that circulation to reform over the southern Gulf with the high (my opinion) probability it will become Christobal (krees-TOH-bahl) later this week.  My concern right now is we're likely to be on the wet side of whatever forms with the potential for heavy rains here Thursday-Saturday.

In the short term, let's enjoy this delightful airmass with a large high centered near Chicago,  It is bringing chilly air over the Northeast and drier air for most of the Gulf South.  Dew points are in the 50s & 60s making the near 90 heat seem not so bad.  That'll change by late Tuesday as the muggies start to return.   Let's keep up with that system coming northward towards the southern Gulf.  At the very least, it'll increase rain chances here, especially for Friday & Saturday.  I'll be out in a boat tomorrow so I'm not sure I'll be back soon enough to post.  We have plenty of time to watch.  Stay tuned!