10 PM Cristobal Update...

The Hurricane Hunters found slightly higher winds and lower pressure in Cristobal tonight but satellite pictures still show a ragged system.

They also determined his forward speed is a bit faster now to the north at 14 mph.   It's remarkable to see ALL computer models clustered/focused on a coastal Louisiana landfall before dark on Sunday.   I can't remember ever seeing such consistency run after run and NHC is not about to change their forecast track.

As you can see, the centerline track is still over Houma & then Baton Rouge.   With confidence in the models growing higher & higher, it appears most of SE LA/MS will receive the brunt of this storm.  As David just pointed out, the main threats from Cristobal will be storm surge (3-6') and heavy rainfall (5-10").  Those of us inside the Levee Protection (now called Risk Reduction) system should be able to weather this storm without major impacts.  We might see numerous power outages so make sure your cell phones are charged up as you go to sleep Saturday night.    Let's hope we get out of this favorable (rising air ) mode of the MJO before the heart of the season (August-September).

Locally, some strong T-Storms have moved southward out of Mississippi.  They have been weakening and should be gone after midnight.  I'll have my next post before noon tomorrow.  Stay tuned!