Some Minor Changes...

The 4 PM NHC update has no surprises since the next Recon Flight won't reach Cristobal until this evening. The only changes I see are the watches (Trop. Storm/Storm Surge) have been upgraded to warnings plus the forward speed was slightly increased (was N at 12 now N at 13) and the centerline track shifted to the right (east) by about 20 miles. 

 

 

The top graphic is the centerline track from this morning taking it right over Morgan City and to the west of baton Rouge. The graphic below it is the new centerline track taking it right over Houma and then over baton Rouge.   This is a minor shift but I'd like it to be a trend since we'd like to get that centerline track to our east placing NOLA on the weaker side of the storm.  It's something to watch tomorrow.  The NHC track remains unchanged and I'd be shocked to see them change it UNLESS the overnight model runs show a dramatic shift. 

 

Cristobal has a well defined circulation, but it remains east side weighted.  No computer model has him intensifying into a hurricane.  If we were in August or September, I'd be more concerned about possible rapid intensification.   Tomorrow I'll be getting my yard ready for some gusty winds on Sunday and so should you.   I'll move my potted plants up against my house and take down my hanging baskets.   Otherwise, the weather map is basic summer time.

 

Even though we have mainly sunny skies today, our dew points ( low level moisture) are in the 70s.  Saturday will see more clouds, but I don't think the real rain/squalls arrive until after midnight into late afternoon on Sunday.   IF Cristobal keeps moving 10-15 mph, he'll be in & out with only minimal impacts for areas inside the Levee protection.  Keep you eye on that forward speed Gang.  I'll update after the 10 pm advisory.  Stay tuned!