The problem with Cristobal is it's hard to find the center on radar. When I look at the close up visible satellite loop, I can find the center, but TO ME it appears the center is not moving, or at the very least has slowed his northward motion to a crawl.
If that is the case, it would allow some of the bands of squalls rotating around the center to develop during the next several hours increasing our potential for heavy rainfall later this afternoon. So far, rain totals are only 1-2" but we'll need to pay attention to that forward motion since if it slows, our rain potential goes up.
The top graphic is the current surface map indicating a broad circulation south of Grand Isle. Next is the NHC official track that follows previous guidance taking Cristobal inland before dark and into north Louisiana by daybreak. The next graphic is the close in view of the center line track issued at 4 AM taking the center over Houma to Baton Rouge. The bottom graphic is the latest center line that has shifted to the right (east) by about 20 miles. If that trend continues shifting to the right, the center of Cristobal might come right over metro NOLA later this afternoon. I think that would be a good thing since the worst winds and rains have been well east of the center. Those of you along the MS/AL coast will get hit harder by the rain bands than us back here in Louisiana. The wild card I see during the next 4-6 hours is..."Is Cristobal slowing/stalling just off the Louisiana coast?" The next full NHC update doesn't come out until 4 pm. Watch and see if they slow the northward motion on their 1 PM inter-mediate advisory
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