As I await the 10 update, here's what I'm seeing tonight. Tropical Storm Laura has a HUGE circulation with a really strange swirl entering the Gulf on her north side. I believe once she clears Cuba, her organization will become much tighter. This is what we don't want to see.
I'm sure you remember Hurricane Dorian that sat for days over the northern Bahamas last August? Note how symmetrical his circulation was with a large eye with an eye wall that was huge. Could we see the same satellite presentation with Laura as she heads across the warm Gulf. My gut says yes and that means we all must pay attention here in SE LA/MS until the center gets west of 90 degrees Longitude. Here's how she looks tonight before she reaches the Gulf.
That swirl on the north side is already in the Gulf as confirmed by the radar out of Key West. The bulk of the T-Storms remain south of the center with a new burst developing near where I believe is the true center. The Euro model has shifted landfall slightly to the west which is good news for us if that trend continues. Here's the newest update from NHC.
They essentially keep the track unchanged heading right towards Lake Charles. The last graphic shows the Euro having landfall even farther to the west. Even NHC is hinting that Laura will probably become a major (Cat. 3) hurricane before landfall. Fortunately, her forward spped (west @ 20 mph) remains very fast which indicates to me that changing directions will be difficult unless she slows down. When the advisories come out tomorrow, keep watching the forward motion and the longitude. Once past 90 west, it becomes almost impossible to make the curve to the north that would impact us. RIGHT NOW, this is a storm headed towards the upper Texas & SW Louisiana coasts.
What about Marco? The last daylight view shows how the center finally did made the turn to the left long after all the weather had been sheared to the NE. The latest infrared satellite view has the center moving WSW off the coast south of Grand Isle with no weather with it.
As David just said...Laura is no Marco". I expect to see that "doughnut look" to Laura maybe as soon as late tomorrow afternoon. Tell your friends in Texas(Houston, Galveston) to pay attention to this storm as the fast forward speed may mean the danger heads farther west that NHC currently predicts. For us, let's enjoy a good night's sleep knowing we will only be brushed by this soon to be a beast of a storm on Wednesday. The coastal surge from Laura will be far greater than Marco's. Next update around 8 AM. Stay tuned!
26 comments:
Marco never turned East as Bob said was taking place.
WTF is anyone worried about marco for ?
A lot of people treat Bob with almost godlike status around here, but he's just as inconsistent as any other meteorologist.
does anyone have faith in any of these meteorologist after this recent debacle .
Bob is a solid no nonsense expert. The problem with these storms is we can only look at the big picture and make educated guesses. I predicted Micheal within 30 miles as a 5 over a week out. Im just a fan and i was screaming to the tv. Idk how i knew or why they didn’t see it. There was nothing in the way. Maybe i was lucky ����♂️
I look up to Bob and Nash and a few clever guys and girls on Twitter. Lol, just today one pointed an eye shift before anyone saw it.
Its like a football game to weather guys. We know the players and the game but nature literally makes rules as she goes.
There are a few things messing with Laura's path. One is Marco #2 is this odd out fake hurricane swirling behind Laura and sucking out the dry air that builds in the high that is steering Laura to Texas. Seemingly also pushing Laura's momentum. 3 is. Land. Up until now we have had 4ish eye shifts. 4 is the anomaly that is the gulf. We could easily have a major hurricane in less than 48 hours. At a cat 5 level hurricanes make their own steering currents so a 3 could impact its cone in and of it self slightly.
Lol all of us are holding are breath. But Bob is one of the greats. No one is always right. ��
These Karen's leaving nasty messages in here need to take it to the streets and burn statutes. Bob is a professional meteorologist who saved many lives during Katrina. All you Bob hatters are not supported in this forum. To hell with all of you!
Bob seems to think he is the hurricane whisper.. never wrong. But in reality is wrong quite a bit. Wouldn’t be a big except for the fact he constantly takes cheap shots at other networks, forecasters, The Weather Channel, NHC etc.. fact is without all NHC doing all the work he would be lost. Still waiting on Marco to make that East turn that he said was obvious and couldn’t understand why the NHC couldn’t see it...: and miss something is easy to see. egg n face
Ugh NO bob had Katrina going to Tampa then freaked when it wasn’t happening and flip flopped daily until almost landfall. It’s all on record.
Eric - go watch fake news CNN then- why are you here?
You Bob hatters must be radical Democrats
Actually, Marco did turn to the east and dissipated. Was originally tracking far west along the western Louisiana coast toward Texas. You do know the difference between East and West, right?
I hope he blocks yall.. Ive been reading every blog post every day and I dont see where he was incorrect. He said Marco was not going to be as much as NHC initially thought it was and was correct. He also said Marco would travel north a lot longer than qhat the track predicted, which was correct. If you think you can do a better job then go for it but keep your ugly comments to yoirswlf
You must have reading comprehension problems. Just the other day he said since The Weather Channel sent Jim to Louisiana Marco isn’t going west implying they are bad at forecasting then he followed up saying Marco is clearly turning East and couldn’t understand why then NHC could miss something so obvious... WRONG! Marco was NOT going East but West just as forecasted. Need more examples.?
Thanks for the reports Bob :) It’s really helpful to have an expert interpret all the data out there. Especially since we’ve been dealing with two this time! My wife and I live on a sailboat in New Orleans and we were wondering if you could add a local marine paragraph to your posts? - like storm surge, wind directions, and waves in Lake Pontchartrain (Specifically the south shore) Thanks so much and keep up the good work- it is appreciated :)
As for me I will always listen to Bob & the Fox8 Weather Team.... No one better than them.....
I live in coastal ms and I always see what Bob says. He's usually spot on.
Anonymous, what channel did we ever see you on as a meteorologist? Let's see! None! LMAO! You're a funny joke and irrelevant.
My prediction is that Phillip, MacGriffin, Eric and Anonymous are all the same person. Same verbiage, same hate.
It always cracks me up when people complain about meteorologists getting it all wrong. It’s Mother Nature! All anyone can do is make their best guess about what’s going to happen, based on their education and experience in the field. Which we don’t have. That’s why we read Bob’s blog.
Anonymous and all of your aliases, I’m sorry that you got your feelings hurt 40 years ago and are still hanging on to it. Just let it go and take yourself to someone else’s blog. Thank you.
Thanks Bob
No the center of Marco never tracked East when he said it was. It’s all on record. Nice try.
No putting down the NHC and other weather organizations when you yourself make many more errors then hide shows ones true character. It’s all on record.
Does that include Bob?
Bob knew the night BEFORE NHC that Marco was going to go east!
He’s always spot on when the storm is a day out otherwise he’s constantly changing. Sorry just a fact.
Marco NEVER went East. Our education system in Louisiana is really beginning to show its flaws.
Thanks for continuing to "work" these things Bob.
I lived in nola most of my life but am now in Lafayette.
I know you are a SE-LA man, but for all of us that moved to the west
PLEASE let us know your thoughts for that area if you can,
expected wind speed in Lafayette etc.
Even tho I am here in Lafayette, when I want great hurricane coverage I always tune to Fox 8 Live via the app, and Bob Breck's Blog... old habits are hard to break.
Thanks again.
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