From Nervous to Much Less Concerned...

When I left you last night, I talked about a track trend that could be shifting farther to the west *away from us),  Indeed that continues as NHC now has their center line west of Lake Charles up the Sabine River.  Here's last night's track.

It was right over Lake Charles making landfall as a Cat. 2 Hurricane Thursday morning. Here's the newest track that has it 30 miles to the west up the TX/LA border.

In addition, the computer model runs all favor an even further west trend increasing the danger for Galveston & Houston.  Note also the M at landfall.  That indicates it will be a Cat 3 or stronger storm.  So let's check our her appearance on satellite views.

Compared to last night, Laura's structure has improved greatly with only the western side lacking storms.  Without any wind shear, she should easily wrap storms around her center and I expect an eye to pop out later this afternoon.  NHC has just upgraded her to a Hurricane.

IF the NHC track proves true, this westward shift lessens any impacts on SE LA/MS.  We'll see some gusty winds at times, especially tomorrow along with higher tides.   Also, since we're on the "wet side", there could be a slight threat for tornadoes this afternoon and tomorrow.  Another negative...her forward motion has slowed from 20 mph down to 17.  A slower motion allows bigger storms an opportunity to make the turn .  I just don't see that happening.  In fact, watching Shelby on FOX 8, she just showed the VIPIR model that takes Laura into Houston.  If your have friends or relatives there, call them and tell them..."Houston, we have a problem".  Finally, remember my experience with models.  Computer models have difficulty with smaller, weaker storms.  They do much better the bigger the storm gets.  Since I'm less nervous, I may go play golf this morning.  Next update won't be until later this afternoon.  Stay tuned!