Get Ready For the MJO Flip...

The fast demise of Tropical Storms Josephine & Kyle can be attributed to winds shear and being in the unfavorable phase (sinking air) of the Madden-Julian Oscillation.  Josephine is now just a small swirl east of the Bahamas.

All of her T-Storms have been blown far away.  Same story for Kyle.  He still has a small circulation, with no weather around it. 

There is another weak low that has moved off behind Kyle, but it's too far north to attain tropical characteristics.   We even have several low level swirls around us, but neither has any weather with them.

Contrast that to Hurricane Genevieve off the Mexican coast in the Pacific.   She has a well defined structure with lots of storms around her center of rotation.  She is expected to become a Cat. 3 or 4 Hurricane during the next couple of days.

The reason storms in the Eastern Pacific are developing is because the MJO is in the favorable phase (Rising air).  Models are showing that phase will shift eastward over the Gulf & Caribbean during the next 7-14 days.  What concerns me is we have several systems out in the Atlantic that NHC is watching.

The nearest area is projected to move across the Caribbean and into the Gulf for early next week.  Most models hint at some development once west of the Cayman islands so we'll need to pay attention come this weekend.   Remember Hurricane Camille didn't form until she was south of Cuba.  Since the MJO is not going to be into the real favorable phase until the following week, I don't believe this is the system to worry about.   However, the second one is.

There are several waves coming off of Africa and NHC has increased the chances for development up to 70%.   This system will have the greater potential to become a stronger storm since the MJO shift will be into full favorable (rising air ) phase by then.   We have many days to just sit, watch & wait.  What you should be doing this week is stocking up on can goods & supplies so you don't have to hassle with crowds once word gets out that we have a threat.   Use our current good weather to get ready.

The 50s & 60s dew points are sinking closer and I expect the next 2 mornings will have a delightful feel to them.  Later in the week, tropical moisture will return and we could get rather rainy again.

Finally, last night's wind storm knocked off many branches from my 3 big oak trees.  My yard was covered in acorns.   What's that old Weather lore...falling acorns in August means an early Fall?  We can only hope!  Stay tuned!