The Donut Is Forming...

I have been using the colorized infrared image of Hurricane Dorian from last August to show you what a major hurricane looks like, a symmetrical shaped eye wall surrounding a hole(eye) in the middle.

Over night Hurricane Laura has strengthened to a Cat. 3, (115 mph) and that donut hole is beginning to show up.

It is not as clear yet as Dorian's, but Dorian was a Cat. 5 at the time of that photo.  Laura is now expected to grow to a Cat. 4 later today and that center should clear out and become better defined during today.   The 4 AM NHC track is exactly the same with no shift back towards us.

If this proves correct, the eyewall will pass over Beaumont/Pt. Arthur and Lake Charles where wind damage will be incredible along with a huge (12-15') storm surge that will extend well inland.   Houston and Galveston should stay well outside the worst weather as they will be on the weaker side of Laura.  However, from Lake Charles to Baton Rouge, impacts will be much greater since Louisiana will be on the strongest side.  Do not attempt to drive westward today or tomorrow (perhaps longer) as this is a life threatening storm.  Local impacts will be mainly high water outside levee protection with the greater surge impact from Pt. Fourchon westward.  If you had water during Rita, expect the same from Laura.

Now that we can track a well defined center (eye), it may appear at times the storm is moving more north than west.  That is because major hurricanes do what's called "cycloidal loops" as they move towards landfall.  It a pattern seen in a spinning top.   The over all forward motion doesn't change and the NHC track error at 24 hours is about 30 miles.  I will admit the final track for Marco ended up where the NHC's forecast predicted.  However, there was a big difference.  When I said "don't ignore the obvious", that referred to the weather/impacts associated with the center which had decoupled/separated from the circulation.  The center of Marco followed the NHC track but all of his impacts did not.  Hurricane Laura is not fighting the wind shear that tore Marco apart.   Her impacts will remain with her track.   She has passed 90 degrees west longitude and her forward motion is still fast enough (NW ,310 degrees, @ 15 mph)) so that I can say with 100% certainty Laura is NOT coming to NOLA.  Her major impacts will be west of Morgan City, especially west of Abbeville/Lafayette.   Let's open your prayer lines as those to our west will need it.  Next update before noon.  Stay tuned!