Sunday, August 23, 2020
What's Up With Marco?
Call me crazy, but tonight's satellite and radar Loops confirm Marco is not following the NHC forecast track. In fact, after watching David showing the HRRR model, I'm buying into the northward movement that takes the center of Marco East of the mouth of the River placing us on the weaker side of the storm. Recon data even says he's no longer a hurricane. Check out these satellite views.
One cluster of storms has broken off to the NE as a new burst develops around the center. Note on radar how all the weather has been blown off to the NE. On the radar loop, it appears to me the motion is due north. I expect NHC will change the track on their next update and also downgrade Marco to a Tropical Storm. In fact, just in Marco has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm, but they haven't changed their track.
In fact, NHC keeps hurricane warnings up for the SE LA. coast. I don't buy it. Once a tropical system loses it's intensity, it has trouble regaining it.(Lili, Isadore 2002) Hey I may be wrong. The safe bet is to repeat the NHC advisory, but as former Coach Tim Floyd once told Jim Henderson..."never ignore the obvious". Marco has NOT followed the previous forecast track. The SW upper shear is taking its toll and I suspect whatever is left of this storm will not have any major impacts on SE LA/MS except for some heavy squalls. Even then, the 4-8"+ rainfall will not happen with 1-3" being more likely. Now on to Laura.
The structure of Laura continues to get better organized and once she clear Cuba late tomorrow, I expect she'll rapidly become a Hurricane. The bad news tonight is the eastward trend of the center line track keeps shifting back closer to us. Forget about Marco. Laura will be the real deal.
NHC's intensity forecast makes Laura a Cat. 2, but my gut tells me she could be worse. We are back in the cone of error and on the strongest side. Fortunately, we will have some time to prepare after Marco before Laura's impact hit. RIGHT NOW, I'm getting real nervous about Laura. Next update after 8 AM. Stay tuned!
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17 comments:
Come on Bob. Keep Laura a distance from SE LA. Your forcast are inline with your staff at Fox 8
Bob, do you think Marco will keep going north and hit the Mississippi or Alabama coasts?
I like David Bernard he's a great meteorologist, but I already listen to you Mr Breck, you the hurricane expert much like the legendary Nash Roberts was. God bless you and your family and everyone in southeast Louisiana.
How can the NHC be so wrong and not see the obvious. Is it they hate to be wrong and don't take into account wind shear or cooling of waters? Marco has to drop the temperature of the water at least a little. And how will its wind affect Laura is still to be seen.
Tks Bob I’ll look for your next update in the morning
NHC update was posted prior to this blog coming out.
What are the flooding odds?
Thank you Mr. Breck. We will be anxious to hear I. The morning appreciate you
Ditto. BB has been my go to meteorologist since NR passed.
Can you believe they kept the track the same at NWS. Do they have "have to be correct" performance anxiety? They were so off with this storm, 3 states off it appears.
You mean Polo, not Laura right ? As in Marco Polo. Grin
need storm surge info. But thanks for your update --i know this has been a mess trying to predict the track on both.
Thank you Bob
I have been telling people on my facebook, one (Marco) will impact Florida and (Laura) is going to Texas, from Laura WE MAY get rain as far as Laura impacting Louisiana, yea maybe Lake Charles but N.O. metro area nah
Thank you Bob...you are the bomb...these meteorologist don't have nothing on you... Sorry but the truth hurts... I watch the weather channel yesterday and if they were talking about the two hurricanes they started laughing which isn't a joking matter... That's what we have these days nincompoops of the future... We thank you for what you do and have done in the past a real meteorologist
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