Thursday, August 20, 2020
Which Will Be Laura?
Yesterday I was fairly certain TD # 13 would become out next named storm. However, this morning's satellite loops clearly favor newly named TD 14 in the Caribbean as the clusters of storms keeps increasing around the center of circulation.
Now that we have a center, NHC is producing their forecast track which takes soon to be Laura into the Yucatan and then towards Texas as a strong Tropical Storm.
Currently there is a deep upper low over the western Gulf that is producing high SW wind shear, The center line track has the "bullseye" heading towards Galveston/Houston, but we are still 5 + days out from landfall. The problem for us is how will TD 14 interact with TD 13 down the road? Let's look at TD 13.
The NHC center line track takes it south of Miami into the Gulf as a Hurricane giving us 2 named storms in the Gulf at the same time. There is something called the "Fujiwhara effect" that says if 2 tropical systems get within 900 miles of each other, they can being to influence each other. Look at two different models for next Tuesday morning.
Both have 2 storms in the Gulf, but the locations are quite different. One has the Texas storm stronger, while the other has the Florida system the strongest. I think Shelby Latino said it best to John Snell this morning. "There remains a lot of uncertainty...". Let's keep an eye on their forward speed (currently quite fast) that might give us a clue on any changes in direction. We'll have a much better idea by Saturday morning whether we need to worry about local impacts.
If we're lucky, the tropical strom force winds stay away from Louisiana & Mississippi. That upper low in the Gulf is firing lots of storms on the eastern side. It's not a day to be at the beach!
Look at how those storms cast big shadows over us this morning. And finally...I promised...
Yesterday morning fishing with Capt. Hylton Petit out of Shell Beach, I landed this 30+ lbs redfish. It was the biggest red I've ever caught and took me two circles of the boat and 9 minutes to land. Obviously, we released it to make more baby reds, but what a way to start your day! I'll have my afternoon update after 4 pm. Stay tuned!
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5 comments:
That's an awesome catch! Thanks for always keeping us up to date with your thoughts on the tropics and things in general. I always check your blog when we have anything that's brewing. My birthday is August 27th, it's been a little while since I have had a storm around my birthday, but they are usually ones to remember unfortunately. Stay safe!
Thank God for you and your calming effect. If you look at some of the weather channels you would head to Canada the next thirty days.
So glad you spread the word to release the mature big fish to go make more babies! Love all the great info on your blog. You have become my Nash!
Awesome catch, Bob! Thanks for keeping everyone informed. You are the best!
That's a nice Red. ya know, you never forget that first bull red. I still cant figure out if the Redfish or me that was hooked.
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