Before I get into my thoughts on this strange season, let's go over what most of you already know. Beta remains a Tropical Storm and it has begun the westward drift that will slowly take it to the Texas coast north of Corpus Christi late Monday into Tuesday.
This aims the wind and surge impacts on Texas along with the heaviest rain threat. However, as I pointed out on past posts, we (Louisiana & Mississippi) will stay on the "wet side" of this system and we need to be aware that keeps the POTENTIAL of heavy, flooding rains here too.
granted, the rains totals for the next 7 days have been reduced from yesterday (probably due to the cooler and drier air around it), there still are 10-15"+ amounts possible. Satellite views show a cluster of storms are around the center of Beta with a dry slot rotating around the south & eastern side up towards us. However, do you see that bright band of squalls far removed from Beta just off the mouth of the River extending down into the Gulf? That is our concern IF it holds together since, when Beta makes the turn back to the NE late Monday & Tuesday, that band will move northward on to land. Our local NWS office indicated that band could create a "training effect" resulting in some flash flooding under the band. It's something to keep an eye on. Now on to this strange season that has seen a record number of storms with 4 already having Louisiana impacts. What else might surprise us?
Well, NHC now is watching a well defined low level swirl that is over central Florida moving to the WEST towards the Gulf. They give it a very low (10%) chance to develop, but in this year, anything can and will happen! What impact would this be to Beta if any? I haven't a clue. What I still do see is Hurricane Teddy being our friend and "Beta Blocking" the storm away from us in the short term.
The large surface high remains centered over the Northeast and normally would pull off into the Atlantic. But both the GFS (American) model and the Euro. bring Teddy very close to the east coast off of Cape Cod by Tuesday morning. Notice how his circulation brings down the center of high pressure into the Carolinas forcing Beta to keep moving to the west. The questions after that are these. 1) What will be left of Beta drawing in the cooler and drier air into it? 2) If Beta retains its tropical core and begins an accelerated motion to the NE, will that bring the flooding rain band currently over the Gulf across us? 3) How much of the cooler and dry air reaches us? So many uncertainties to deal with. let's first look at the cooler and drier air.
Dew points (top graphic) have dipped into the 40s !!! as close as Birmingham and Atlanta and will that dryness continue to press our way? Also, the airmass all across the Gulf coast from Texas to northern Florida is much cooler than last week when Sally was around. You have to go south of Tampa & Orlando to get back into a summer like airmass. My hope is the cooler & drier air win out, weaken Beta into a remnant low over east Texas, cutoff the current heavy rain band in the east central Gulf and eliminate the earlier heavy rain threat from a slow moving storm. Possible? Sure. Likely? Probably not.
So let's look at this band of squalls over the Gulf far removed from Beta's center. We obviously have two separate entities as some dry air has wrapped around the southern and eastern sides of Beta. Will the band to our SE try to wrap back around Beta later today? That would bring the rain shield back over us later this afternoon. We don't want that to happen. I'll be watching closely to see if that occurs. Locally, we are dealing with some brisk, gusty winds that have shifted from yesterday's NE direction to ENE. That has started to increase seas (4-5" yesterday to 8-10" now) and tides with high water again outside the levee system.
We are not likely to see much improvement to these winds and high water for most of this coming week. If there is any benefit to Beta, it's the cloud cover and rainfall (1.45" at my house) that kept yesterday & today's highs below 80. It's almost "chilly in Gentilly!" Next update coming around 4 PM. Stay tuned!
28 comments:
Hi Gang. I've instructed my son Rob to allow the negative posts. One of my mentors told me early on in my career "that if you try to please everyone, you'll end up pleasing no one." I want to hear from those who disagree. I do find it amusing to see the negative posts always come from people who are afraid to show who they are. If any posts uses foul language or gets personal, we will remove it. Otherwise keep having fun & expressing you ideas & comments. thanks
I ALWAYS trust what you say. Not one person here on earth is perfect but I feel you strive to bring the MOST accurate information possible. Keep doing you! Your followers know who to trust! Peace Bob and God's blessings to you and your loved ones.
Why all storms that came out of Africa turned out to be fish storms so far this season?!
Thanks Bob I do regard your opinions very highly.
I appreciate that you thoroughly explain the reasoning behind your predictions not just tell us what’s going to happen, you try to educate your audience. Thanks again Mr. Brec.
We are blessed that you choose to interrupt your well earned retirement to keep us informed! My family appreciates you! I enjoy your explanations and your ability to educate us. Thank you
Ok bob. My name is frank. Now I have shown who I am. Does that help? Why do you have more questions than answers? The only thing that you said in this latest post that you are sure of is that you don't have a clue
To Frank are you reading what we are? You are so disrespectful!
Bob is and has always been a teacher. He wants us to understand what is happening. If Frank had any concept of the vast number of variables involved in compiling a forecast he would not be in the least faxed that Bob sometimes has more questions than answers. He shares his knowns and his unknowns. That is what a good teacher does.
Hey Frank, Bob doesn’t control the weather, he analyzes it. Try shifting your focus onto some more productive than harassing a retired meteorologist.
Dear Frank: You're soooo brave. I wonder how many thousands of Franks there are in SE Louisiana or the Gulf Coast area. Most people who don't like a product just go somewhere else, which makes me wonder what your motives are? You won't find a sympathetic audience here, so why not take your trolling to another site where it will be more appreciated? It must be galling to be treated like a gnat. Surely Facebook or Twitter would be more receptive to your vitriol!
Thanks for the update and for keeping a watch over Mississippi!
I think bob is enjoying Frank's antics. As he said, keep having fun & expressing your ideas and comments
Love ya Bob!!! Thx
😉👏👏👏
BTW: I not the 'Anonymous' that is doing the criticizing of Bob! I post as Anonymous because I have no other way to post! Bob is doing a great job and way beyond the call of duty! In fact, he no longer has a duty to us, since he's retire, BUT CHOOSES to keep us informed! And for that I am thankful!
Bette
Hey “Frank”, do you not have a life. Do you need attention wether positive or negative? Quit being ugly. GOD doesn’t like ugliness.
You may be right Unknown, he's probably getting a good laugh from them!
Bette
If you have an issue with how he reports things, then don't read it. No one is making you. If your just seeking attention , mission accomplished
Bob welcomes the negative comments. It's a way for him to know how he can improve on his reporting. He does have a sense of humor and enjoys a good laugh like some of us. Unfortunately for so many of his loyal followers, they seem to get upset. To you all, take a look at Bob. He is clearly not getting upset. Keep up the good work Bob
Bob will basically tell you it’s raining when it’s raining then bash other local meteorologists for not telling you it was going to rain. That’s what everyone is tired of. Cindy
Look Bob the bottom line is this. I’m having a daughter in November and we don’t know what to name her! Please. Will you help us out and tell us what to name her? We are thinking of going with Bob but my mother in law says no. What should we do?
Still working on getting my mom to make that lasagna for us.
Bless up!
Love you Bob!
-your bestie
I never knew people got so worked up about meteorology. Cindy, the only “bashing” I hear on this site is from pathetic internet trolls like you and Frank. Both of you can go kick rocks. Y’all would make a wonderful couple, you could go to restaurants and complain about the service, take long walks and whine about the neighborhood. Oh, joy, y’all should really reach out and make it happen. Bob, you’re the man, we appreciate you!
Are you serious?!
I can always count on you . Your explanations help me understand what is going on. Thank u.
Cindy P. You are right on and I'm sure Bob would agree with you
Ok. We got your back!
These criticizers must not be reading the same posts the rest of us are reading. I have yet to see any of their claims on any of Bob's posts!
Its true I don't understand most of the maps, but that's okay, Bob does a good job of explaining everything
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