Could Gulf Get Active?

 NHC is still watching lots of action in the Atlantic and coming off of Africa where our next named storm (Sally) is likely to happen either tomorrow or Saturday.  However, NHC is now highlighting 2 areas much closer to home in the Gulf.

Last night David pointed out two tropical waves moving to the west.  The first one was over Florida & the Keys while the second was east of the Bahamas.  We are just getting in the first daylight pictures of both systems.

The large disorganized clusters of clouds east of the Bahamas still looks to be an open wave with no low level spin yet.  The system over Florida has moved into the eastern Gulf and there is a burst of storms west of Tampa with the hint of a small swirl.   As Shelby pointed out this morning, even if neither system develops into a small storm, the least we'll get beginning tomorrow into next week will be lway above normal rain chances.  We easily could see 3-5"+ spread out over several days.  The surface map has an old frontal boundary that is dissipating over the NE Gulf.

In addition, a strong cold front is coming to a halt just west of Houston.  Look at how much cooler it is behind the front as San Antonio & Dallas are in the 50s!  Oh so close! but that front will not push through us.  Currently, the upper air flow over the Gulf is somewhat hostile as lots of dry air exists with a weak upper low across the north central Gulf.   Let's see as we get more daylight views whether there really is a spin over the eastern Gulf.  None of the models do much with it, but stranger things have happened already this year.  Could Sally form in the Gulf instead of way out in the Atlantic?  Possible, but not likely as NHC gives it a 30% chance.  With the MJO in the unfavorable (sinking air) phase, I'd be surprised to see rapid development.  Since it's so close it's worth paying attention.  Next update this afternoon.  Stay tuned!