We have been waiting all night, through this morning & now this afternoon hoping Hurricane Sally would finally begin moving. Based on Satellite, radar and confirmed by Recon aircraft, Sally is moving to the NORTH. Granted NHC says the motion is only 2 MPH, but it looks faster than that on radar. Compare the views from this morning and now at 3:30 PM
the top view is from this morning when the center was due east of the mouth of the River. The bottom view now shows the center some 30 miles to the north heading towards Mobile Bay. Here is the latest NHC Track.
No longer are they predicting a turn from the west to the north. They have nudged their track slightly farther to the east from Pt. Clear on over to Gulf Shores and it could end up even farther to the east which is good news for SE LA. & southern MS. The worst impacts will be from Fort Morgan at the entrance to Mobile Bay eastward to Seaside, Seagrove and Rosemary beaches. If you are in south Alabama or NW Florida, you are in for a long night. Hopefully we can get Sally on shore and inland with some improvements coming for you before dark on Wednesday? As they say..."hunker down!"
The scale indicates rain totals might be 20"+ along the beaches. Can you imagine if/when a tropical system stalls near us like Isaac did several years ago. 20+" in Orleans Parish? Need I say any more.
Satellite views continue to show a well defined circulation and I put the arrow where I think the center is. Sally's past track is even worse than the smoothed out one shown above. This has been a nightmare of a storm as the models clearly did not handle the atmosphere like they did with Laura.
So why is Sally finally on the move. Past posts have pointed out the surface high that has been blocking any northward movement is shifting off the Atlantic coast allowing Sally to move to the north. In addition, an upper trough is approaching from the Rockies increasing the SW upper flow that should finally get Sally inland and away from us. Current north winds will veer more to the NW with time allowing water levels to recede during the day on Wednesday. Seeing the videos from Gulf Shores and Pensacola make me very happy the track to the west of us didn't happen.
Those of you critical of all the meteorologists/forecasters, look at Sally's past track. I just took this of Zack Fradella on FOX 8. As I said earlier, What a forecaster's nightmare! Next update after 10 PM. Stay tuned!
21 comments:
Those haters just never had a good slice of mommas slice a Lasagna before!
They don’t bless up like me you do Bob.
Haters gonna hate players gonna play.
Bless you Bob
I don't like beets so I don't eat them. I don't like cigarettes so I don't smoke them. If you don't like Bob, take your negativity elsewhere. Bob and the other meteorologists are not god or mother nature. The experts at the NHC verbalize the raw data they see, they will not report anything other than that. Bob uses his experience and adds commons sense to tell us things that he sees, this is, he will step out of the box. Bob, thanks for your insight and also for your generosity to have this blog even in retirement. BSL backer
Ditto the previous comments x 100
Like football. You put out the best effort you Dan but you still don’t win them all. All the time
Bob is one experienced person. The NHC has ove 25 abd they all can’t get it right all the time
Tooooooo many varibles called Mother Nature!!!!
I must say Bob, you always get it right. Too bad it's always after the fact. Thanks for nothing
To Unknown Said: If you do not think Bob is accurate(which BTW he is much of the time)please tell us all WHY do you even follow him? You are adding nothing to the discussion.
You ever notice how Bob never goes against what the current predictions are? Never gives you a definite answer. Nash would tell you dont pay attention to these projections, THIS is where the storm is going. Bob retired fir a reason. Hes expired his usefulness
Thanks for your guidance through a difficult storm to track!
Our meteorologists are Olympians among meteorologists. They get a workout and still look good doing it! They all contribute to this whole complex picture of where the weather is going and what's it going to do.Thanks to all of you, you don't have to work here but you do.
There aren't always definite answers with meteorology. Under some circumstances, there's more predictability, like when steering patterns are strong, but weather is chaotic. Accuracy is better now than ever.
That being said, Bob is not an exceptional meteorologist like some locals think. He's about as accurate as the other top local meteorologists.
Well, I don't think he's greatly inaccurate, but the way some people kiss his ass and idolize the guy makes me cringe. When that happens, I think it's beneficial to balance it out a bit, but I don't think it's okay to personally attack the guy.
Nash didn't get them right all the time. There are too many variables in any given situation.
Those of you looking for perfection will Never find it! There was only ONE perfect human and HE died on a cross for all!
There was NONE before or since! Nor will there ever be til HE returns!
Bob is only human and with his knowledge and experience and insight does an excellent job!
Have none of you criticizers ever been wrong! Let he who has NEVER been wrong cast the first criticism!
Bette
I see there is a new disturbance in the southwestern Gulf!
Thanks Bob. I always appreciate how you don't follow the NHC verbatim like the majority. You always have to have some caution because these storms are like wild animals at times and don't listen to what they are supposed to do. The people that complain about the caution have never been affected by a bad storm. Thanks again Bob.
BTW: Nash was Great NOT Perfect!
I find that Bob has many of the same qualities as Nash? Keep up the good work Bob, for as long as you can, I know you will because you care so much! I too appreciate all you do! Thanks much!
Bette
No way man BOB IS LIFE!
Seriously ALL Bob does is lay out every possible track and then of course one pans out he claims it a win for him... and says the NHC and all the rest suck. Gets old.
Cindy, if you don’t like Bob’s forecasting, why in the world are you here?
Cindy, you want to talk about getting old, well, your criticisms of Bob has gotten old a long time ago!
Bette
Anytime there's a hurricane or disturbance in the tropics, I come to your blog first and stay here for updates. Thank you and your son for making it available. I believe one gets a gut feeling about these storms with troughs and other weather steering patterns that can affect the track of a hurricane. It can only come from years of doing this.
Your blog brings me a sense of relief or knowing when to move to higher ground. I don't have the time or money to give into the hysterics.
To the doubters, it looks foolish commenting on a site, complaining when you're clearly reading it.
I ignore the ugly critics, they're just trying to get a rise from people, don't give them what they want. if you have a legitimate question, ask it and let others make up their own minds.
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