As I await the 10 pm update from NHC, I've been looking over the comments to my last post. I understand the anxiety we all have when there is any kind of tropical threat. However, I hate when many of you,with limited weather knowledge, start speculating that TD 19 could be another Katrina or Harvey. I was thrilled to see comments regarding the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) that I believe is the main controller for development at this time of the year. As I've mentioned in past posts, we are currently in the unfavorable (sinking air) phase and for that reason, I am NOT thinking TD 19 will become a major storm despite no wind shear and warm water temps. This will be a good test to see it that theory is correct since everyone is predicting this disturbance might become a hurricane before nearing us.
So let's review satellite and radar this evening. I expect NHC will keep TD 19 a depression as it looks disorganized on satellite pics and has several swirls on radar. David just showed the wind field over south Florida and Miami (less than 50 miles from the center) has winds from the NE at 5 mph. I really don't expect much change until this system crosses south Florida and gets back over the open Gulf late Saturday into Sunday. I think the main concern (unlike Laura) will not be wind but heavy rainfall.
Tonight's updated forecast has an elongated area of 10-15" just to our east stretching all the way to the Florida beaches. The track of this storm will govern who gets in on the heaviest rainfall. IF the center line track stays to our east, we won't get very much. However, IF the track shifts to our west, then we could see much greater totals. OK it's in, here's the new NHC forecast track.
No, I didn't just copy and paste the old 4 pm track. But NHC really didn't change anything(still a TD) keeping the center line track just east of Slidell by Tuesday morning. I will keep following that center line forecast to see if there is any shift to the east or west. As my last post stated, we want a farther eastward shift as that would keep most of the impacts east of NOLA. I don't wish bad on anyone, but we must look out for us first. IF you have plans to visit the beaches this weekend or next week, just know there will be lots of clouds and showers at least through Tuesday and/or Wednesday. NHC still says TD 19 will approach hurricane strength before making landfall. Lets cheer for the unfavorable MJO! Next update Saturday morning. Stay tuned!
6 comments:
Was the MJO in a positive or negative phase for Hurricane Laura? I don’t remember. Thanks, Bob.
We going 2 gulfshores alabama Monday till Friday. Do u think its a good idear and or will it be a wash out??? Thanks bob
Did you read his article? Not a good idea to go to Gulfcoast beaches. Lots of rain and where your going will be right in the bullseye of the heavy rain
I am not as concerned with this storm as I am with Disturbance 2. I know it is a long, long way off but I don't like that it is at such a 'low' latitude. The initial track seems to be straight West. Just having tail in air.
where do you get your last graphic?
I believe it was in the more favorable phase.
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