Even though there appears to be a well defined surface swirl, the color photo doesn't have many storms around it yet. What we don't want to see is what has happened to Hurricane Teddy out in the Atlantic, now a powerful Cat. 4 heading towards Bermuda.
If 90L develops into a storm, models slowly bring it northward and then drift it to the west as no threat to us. However, look at this morning's Euro model run.
The top graphic is valid for NEXT Tuesday with the disturbance nearing the Texas coast before stalling for 1-2 days. The bottom graphic is valid for NEXT Thursday with an intensifying storm moving into Morgan City. Obviously, IF that proves true, we would be on the strong side for impacts. Since we don't have anything to track yet, let's not go into panic mode. Remember, computer models do NOT handle weak systems very well. Plus, the Euro model was WRONG for most of Sally's track. So the bottom line is nothing will happen quickly and we'll have lots of time to watch and worry. Nah, you watch and let me worry. RIGHT NOW, I am not nervous. Next update when/if Recon finds a closed center. Stay tuned!
42 comments:
Stop with the drama Bob... you knock other networks for causing undo drama and fear and look at you here showing a recently unreliable model with Louisiana as the bullseye impacted by a major hurricane week from today. Incredible and irresponsible.
Thanks, as always, Bob!
Larry, if you don’t like what Bob has to say then move along!!! Others (like me) count on Bob and love what he has to say...
I count on you too Bob! Take a hike Larry!
At least he’s giving a warning!
At least he’s giving a warning. Just because we were impacted doesn’t mean it can’t happen again
You're simply the best, Bob!
I totally agree. Bob loves the drama. He uses the word panic all the time. Keep it exciting huh Bob, so everyone will continue to stay tuned on your blog. Your need to feel important must be overwhelming
Bob. I thought you retired. Why dont you leave the forecasting to those that are still in the business.
Keep doing what your doing and say what you wish Bob, you are making others feel better.
Exactly!
Thank you, Bob Breck, for all that you do to keep us informed.
Thank you, Mister Breck.
I knew that thing was out there from multiple sources, so have been trying to find information on it.
As always yours is clear, put in both meteorological and layman's language, and is cautious without ever being Chicken Little.
That's why I've instructed my family and friends in the Northeast to always consult your blog before they worry and start sending me emails.
Keep up the good work, keeping us informed, without scaring us. As long as your house plants aren't in the he shed, and your storm shutters aren't closed, I know it's not time to panic.
Incidentally, I was crystal clear that you were not crystal clear, and that none of the models were crystal clear on Sally. for that reason, just to be on the safe side, I enjoyed a little evacucation over in Toledo Bend, in the Sabine national Forest on the border of Texas and Louisiana.
I started watching more intently when you said you were nervous, went ahead and rented a car, and then as I saw it was very likely going to miss us, but you were also clear that things seemed pretty odd and unpredictable, I decided not to even worry about it, and to enjoy a few days away.
That's what your blog does for me. It gives me options, and for that I'm very appreciative.
Larry and the "unknown". All you have to do is look the other way. You are both clearly nervous people focusing on fear words that make you scared on the inside and mad in the outside. I've only lived in this area for 15 years now, but Bob is by far the most accurate forecaster for these storms I've seen yet.
I'm positively appalled at some of the comments here. Whoever, anonymously, said to Bob, "your need to feel important must be overwhelming" needs to check themselves. Nothing worse than someone who spews hate from the anonymity of a computer screen. Bob retired and yet he obviously has a passion for the weather and cares about keeping people informed. These posts don't write themselves. Bob takes the time to disseminate the information so the public can understand it, just like he did when on TV. For those that say he's all hype, there are plenty of meteorologists to choose from in this market. Perhaps y'all need to watch some of the others to find out just how real Bob Breck is. Make no mistake, Bob, we love you and many of us consider you the calm in the storm. I can't imagine a hurricane season without you!
Hey Bob. I know you are the absolute best. That's why last saturday when you said new orleans need to start getting nervous and would get major impacts from this strong hurricane, trusting you as I do, I decided to evacuate. And since the tracks were tending to the west, I went east. My trust in you put me right in the true path of the storm and by the time you finally got the prediction right, it was too late to get out. I guess it's funny that listening to the words of the best in the business put me right in harm's way. I hope you make a better guess on this next storm
He never said leave. He never said he was closing his shutters. You took it upon yourself to evacuate. Don't blame Bob.
I've been watching Bob since i was a little kid. Got me excited about meteorology. Thanks Bob, keep up the good work!
Edit: If Bob says Run. You might want to Run..lol
Why would you go east and not north? Just curious. No disrespect.
Actually he did say he was closing his shutters and picking up the outside furniture
I'm from Minnesota. Just moved here 2 years ago. I dont know much about hurricanes. At the time the storm was still moving west. What I do know is everyone has told me Bob breck is the best And if he says to start getting nervous you can count on it. So I decided to get out early the storm was predicted to hit just a couple of days later
He said the tracks were trending east.
He showed one of the well trusted models. Stop reading his blog if you don't like him.
Lol he literally just said the model was NOT reliable with Sally yet wants to fear monger for attention.
Hey that’s fine if Bob wants to fear monger with a model that was not reliable with Sally. Fine but just don’t put down other networks and meteorologists that do the same. FYI he said Katrina was going to be a Florida storm.
Trolling in the comments of a retired meteorologist's personal blog is one of the most pathetic things I've ever seen. I'm sure Bob agrees, so it's prolly best to ignore the rabble.
Thanks for keeping us informed w/ TD22 btw; I'm going to be checking the blog daily.
Larry, wow... you’re a complete moron. Get off Bobs page if you can’t comprehend what he is saying... “im not nervous.” Some people get offended just by others breathing.. sheesh.
I doubt that he will admit to that and ruin his false image
“Unknown” is a equal moron. You the one being dramatic and accusing a man of needing attention by being dramatic while u are being completely dramatic yourself. Go harass someone on Instagram or something.. lol
The key word is RETIRED.
I read Bob’s blog because he does not feed into drama. And if you don’t like what he says why are you reading it?! Thank you Bob. I can’t watch the news because all the weather forecasters scare me to death, Bob does not. Keep up the good work Bob! Don’t listen to those other idiots
Y’all act like showing the Euro is absurd because it was wrong with Sally. Newsflash the Euro is one of the main ones they use along with GFS. When all models agree (Laura) you can typically count on the path within a reasonable number of miles. None of the models had Sally pegged because she was irrational. She moved all around, reformed centers, strengthened and weakened and strengthened again.
But Bob always gives your fair warning and plays out every scenario that he sees as a possibility. He tells you what to watch for changes and signs of shifts. He tells you when to sit tight and when to get worried. And to whomever said Bob said Katrina was going to Florida, she WAS until Saturday morning. Are you kidding me with that comment?! She went further south of Cuba and shifted all the models west to us. You realize when a storm is that far away a slight shift can make the difference between a panhandle hit and and a Nola hit right? It’s just physics. It still gave us almost 36-48 hours to prepare. Meteorologists aren’t God. They use the tools they have and tell you when they are confident and when they are uncertain. And to take the time to comment to tear someone down on a personal level? That’s what’s wrong in this world. Just. Move. On.
I like Bob as well but he does tend to make comments about our forecasters. You can't expect to make negative comments about others and not expect to receive negative comments in return. As for Katrina, most people had no idea about computer spaghetti models back then; however, a lot of college students knew about a website called wunderground. This website had showed that Katrina had a high probability of coming this way by Thursday night and their own blogger, Dr. Jeff Masters, warned of the possible outcome. Bob is a good source. He keeps it short and sweet but just like with doctors, a second opinion does not hurt.
Some of you criticizers need to take Reading Comprehension 101!
Bob NEVER said he was definitely taking in his plants or closing his shutters! He said IF the storm continued moving as it was he was going to do it the next day. BUT Sally started moving east so he never had to do those things! Some of you people need to get a life if you have nothing better to do than come here and criticize a man who is doing a great service that, by the way, he does NOT have to do!
He cares and that's what really matters! Thanks much, Bob!
Bette
Well said, I agree wholeheartedly with every word!
Bette
this comments section leaves me feeling like Michael Bluth looking at the bag in his freezer every time.
Listen weath anchors this day in age are all over dramatic. I lived in the midwest for 20 years and all of a sudden they started naming winter storms. It gives them a since of purpose I guess. But if I was in there shoes , I would rather be blame for being over dramatic than not taking it serious enough. It's a fine line they have to walk for sure.
Thank you Bob. Please disregard the trolls with their ridiculous comments. I respect and value your meteorological insight. Thanks for all that you do to keep us informed regarding the ever changing weather in our area.
If you actually read the post, there’s zero drama in it. You don’t like his forecasting and reporting style, stop reading it.
Some sadly jealous forecasters on here? Or just mean spirited trolls? Why all the criticism? Thank you Bob . You are the best!
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