We have a New Depression and It's Heading Into the Gulf...

 I have delayed posting until after 4 pm since I felt NHC must make Invest 96L a tropical depression.  As I await their advisory, let's look at satellite and radar.  We have 2 areas highlighted over the Gulf for possible development.

the weaker system is south of the Louisiana coast and will bring us showers/squalls overnight into Saturday.  Since it is already about 90 west longitude and winds and seas are not increasing, we need not worry about this system.

The satellite view of 96L is bigger and better defined with a swirl on radar just east of Miami.  NHC has decided to call this Tropical Depression # 19  and they now have issued their forecast track/cone & Tropical Storm warnings for South Florida. Yep, SE LA/MS is about the "bullseye" for landfall 4 days out.

So we begin the process of who will see the worst impacts of what is predicted to be a Strong Tropical Storm (Sally).  Remember the worst side of any tropical system is typically to the right of the center line track.  That center line now is very near Slidell late on Monday.  What I would like to see is that center track shift eastward during the next 2-3 days as that would keep us on the weaker side with no major impacts.  Regardless, there will be heavy tropical rains with this system with the potential for over a foot of rain on the east side, which RIGHT NOW would be from Gulfport eastward.  I'll have another updated storm total forecast later tonight.  Watching TWC saying there is nothing (no shear, warm waters) to keep TD 19 from becoming even a hurricane, remember the phase of the MJO.  The circulation south of our coast today moved over the top of the Loop Current the past 24 hours without really changing.  Could it be because the MJO is in the unfavorable phase?   That's my thinking.  Let's see what TD 19 does once it gets into the Gulf late tomorrow.   IF NHC starts shifting their center line track to the left (west and south), then that would raise my concern as it would stay over the northern Gulf putting us on the strong side of possibly Sally.  Right now, it's too soon to know until we have a better defined disturbance.   I'll update again later this evening after the 10 pm advisory.  Stay tuned!