Tropical Storm Gamma is back over the northern Gulf, but is expected to turn west then SW into the Bay of Campeche. So our focus needs to shift to 92L south of Haiti in the Caribbean Sea.
NHC has increased chances for development to 80%...translation, it's gonna happen...and the next name is Delta. Early computer models (nothing to track yet) have this system coming towards Louisiana and our doom & gloom guy at TropicalTidbits loves to jump on intensity forecasts (very little accuracy) and cry wolf with every storm. Since The Lady has sung, go back and reread by posts. I indicated her singing does NOT mean we won't have another tropical threat. I said what it DOES mean is the threat for a major (Cat. 3+) is over. The reason for that thinking goes back to what Meteorologist Zack Fradella showed last week. The oceanic heat content/energy potential across most of the Gulf, especially the northern Gulf, has decreased during the past 2 weeks.
The top graphic is from last week with the bottom being the current. Note how the Gulf has cooled even more. What could happen is 92L develop rapidly over the warmest waters of the NW Caribbean and become a Cat. 2 or 3 hurricane moving slowly towards us. As it gets farther to the north, the cooler waters and drier air should begin a weakening process and, IF it heads right towards us for NEXT weekend, that process brings it down to a Cat. 1 or Tropical Storm. The problem with all of that is having 2 storms in the Gulf at the same time once again. Which one develops or which one weakens and how do their interactions affect their forward motions?
The top view has both disturbances together with Gamma being the much better developed storm. Her inner core has survived passing over the Yucatan and its back over the Gulf. NHC does not strengthen it because look at all the cold air clouds being drawn down all the way to Mexico.
As I said yesterday, Gamma could be around down over the Gulf beyond NEXT weekend! Now look at 92L.
92L remains a large cluster of disorganized T-Storms with a hint of a mid level swirl SE of Jamaica. Will it develop over the warmest waters on the Planet? Probably, but how will the nearness to Gamma influence (restrict?) that development? I feel very confident whatever forms will encounter a vastly different environment the farther northward it goes. Be scared by these bloggers if you so choose. I prefer going by experience.
Another weak front will filter through over night, but there are no other fronts coming during this week. Our dew points remain low, but over time the Gulf muggies will return this week along with the chances for showers later in the week.
We are seeing some of the high clouds from Gamma making for hazy sunshine and temps are quite comfy cool. next post late this afternoon. Enjoy you Sunday & go Saints! Stay tuned!
16 comments:
See that there is what everyone gets tired of.. Bob calls out others for doom and gloom as he calls it but yet he does the exact same thing. Bob showed a model bring one of the hurricanes this season to New Orleans as a cat 4 even though the storm was nearly a week out.. good stuff
I've notice the same thing about bob. The guy clearly inexperienceing Alzheimer's. Maybe that's why he is not working and quoting Dolly Parton songs. And even that is making him look foolish. Btw bob your a blogger as well
If you don't like Bob quit coming to his blog
I'm gonna call BS on both of you. I find Bobs forecasts to be well informed and as accurate as possible. Remember he is giving weather predictions. There are just too many ways Mother Nature can throw a monkey wrench into the mix.
Thank you Mr Breck! I know I appreciate your time and energy you put into your blog and the break down of information you prepare for us, non meteorologist, to understand in clear layman’s terms.
Nobody has a problem with him giving predictions... it’s his constant putting down of other meteorologists and channels when he does the exact same thing.
After latest update out all one can say is ... open mouth - insert foot.
LOL just read the comments on Facebook page.. clearly I’m not the only one tired of his putting others down.
Oh well I guess the Fat Lady thing should be put on hold until after next weekend
He puts other bloggers down. The guy sits at home and looks at the same thing we all are looking at. He isn't doing anything special. Seriously all of you can do this.
Cindy..please just stop visiting his blog if you dont like what he has to say.
I ALWAYS TRUSTED BOB. I'VE BEEN TAKEN HIS ADVICE SERIOUSLY. THANKS BOB
I love tidbits..maybe he was referring to Mikes weather page. Levi Cowan is very responsible in his reporting.
I've always respected Bob, but I've been following Levi since he was in Jr. high in Homer, AK. Levi is one of the youngest to receive a PhD in Atmospheric Sciences, emphasis on tropical systems. Bob, there is simply no need to be patronizing and rude to this kid. Sorry, but this just comes off as petty. I still wish you the best, but maybe you should choose your words more carefully the next time, and remember that you are also a blogger.
That's why I think no he was speaking of Mikes weather's page
I beg to differ, all of us sitting at home do not see and understand all that technical stuff! I for one have no idea what all that stuff means. Sure Bob goes over all that technical for those who ARE interested but he also explains it in simple language the rest of us understands!
~Bette~
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