When Delta briefly became a Cat. 4 Hurricane in the NW Caribbean, it never really had an eye pop out on satellite views like most major storms. But finally this afternoon an eye can be clearly seen on the most recent satellite pics.
It's not as clear as Laura's eye, but it tells me Delta is getting stronger, and that was expected since it was over the warm waters of the southern Gulf. Bur Delta is nearing 25 degrees north latitude and the oceanic heat content/energy potential is much lower north of 25 degrees.
My guess tells me Delta has about 6-12 hours left to get stronger. After that, I would expect to see a gradual weakening as it nears the coast. It is looking like a Cat. 3 now and we'll see what NHC calls it on the 4 PM update. Here it is. There are NO major changes to the center line track, but the winds have increased to 115 mph (Cat 3) and forward motion has slowed (NW @ 12) and started the turn to the north (320 degrees).
It appears the center line track keeps lake Charles on the weaker side of Delta, but they will be close enough to get into the eye wall winds. The main surge will be to the right (east) of the track, and since this is such a large storm, some surge will reach as far east as BIX/MOB.
The top view shows Delta covering up half of the Gulf so impacts will be far away from the center line track. However, the heaviest rainfall 5-10" will be confined to the areas that get into the eye wall squalls. Note the latest has less than an inch over SE LA/MS. I will take down my hanging plants this evening and anything that might fly off when winds gust to 40 + tomorrow. I will not close my hurricane shutters. Delta will not stall and it will head inland and away during the day on Saturday. So now we start thinking about our next cold front.
Looking at the current surface map finds no fronts in sight. Up north they call this Indian Summer, the first warm spell after the first frost. Down South we just call it too hot for October! Maybe towards the end of next week we'll see some relief from these muggies. For now we're just thankful Delta doesn't have us in the bullseye. Next update after 10 PM. Stay tuned!
28 comments:
Delta has been slowing down. Starting tonight it will slow down more and take a northeasterly track. This storm will be much closer to us than the so experts think. You heard it first from:
Hurricane lover
Will it come to new Orleans
It is best that you pay attention only to the experts.
This update is sweeter than old grand dad’s root beer candy
Hey anonymous. This morning bob said it will hit the texas line. Now hes saying lake charles will be west of the center. Eventually one of his predictions will be correct. I would tend to agree with you more than with the all knowing bob
Here we go again with this nonsense!
Why do you think it will go NE????
Agreed!
On what is this based? The turn has been expected. It's doing everything it was expected to in recent forecasting by most meteorologists. Leave the predictions to people who know what they're talking about.
No, it's not coming to New Orleans, to the one who asked. It's impossible at this point with the steering and speed. Could it be more east of the current track. Unlikely but possible, bot NOLA is not getting anywhere near the worst of this.
Goodness with all those parallel processing cray computers running crazy fast no consensus huh? Go figure. In Gods hands.
It has clearly started going north at 5:39 well off the path of track. COULD it come closer to us?
MacGuffin, “the people who know what they’re talking about” missed Sally’s track by 250 miles. Do I need to refresh your memory?!
Hurricane lover
Of course. That’s exactly what will happen. The Texas trough Will force it to go east. Look at the charts. The trough is already at TX/LA border, and it is pushing East!
Hurricane lover
If you pay attention to the latest data, the storm is slowing down because the high pressure is retreating to the East, and the Texas trough is pushing from the West, Delta has to start moving north north east. There is no ifs or buts about it!
Hurricane Lover
Hurricane lover if you are so smart go start your own blog
I think hurricane lover is really Margaret Orr messing with Bob's head
Haha. Now that’s the way to look at it.
THERE IS ONE VERY VERY IMPORTANT THING ALL YOU CRITICIZING PEOPLE FORGET! HURRICANES HAVE A MIND OF THEIR OWN! YOU NEVER KNOW EXACTLY WHERE ITS GOING TO LAND TIL IT LANDS! I'VE LIVED IN NOLA AND AREA ALL MY LIFE 73 YEARS, AND I KNOW THIS! ALSO ALL THE WEATHERMEN CAN GIVE YOU IS AN EDUCATED GUESS, NOTHING THEY SAY IS CARVED IN STONE!
The ones I watch talked about the uncertainty of the forecast
Thare levels of uncertainty depending on various factors. Again I ask, on what are you basing your statements? Everything happening now was expected.
Hurricane lover, this was expected. The track is not going to change dramatically at this point. Are you going to come back and take your L when you're wrong or do what Bob did and disappear then ignore?
Why the all caps?
Yes, weather forecasting has a lot of unpredictability, but you can often narrow things down with high accuracy based on the data. It's not just all random, even if there is a random factor to it.
Why do we have a major hurricane off the coast of us tomorrow? Bob said the fat lady sang and it couldn’t happen... confused
A major hurricane won't make landfall. No need to be an ass, ass.
To Mary
From Bette
It may not be a major hurricane, we'll have to see what happens.
As for Bob and the far lady singing, this has been a most unusual hurricane season, perhaps Bob did jump the gun a bit by getting the diva to sing. Considering the weird and unpredictable tropical season we had, it may have been better to keep the diva warming up a bit longer!
All and all it just goes to show you that you shouldn't count your chickens before they hatch!
Bottom line: Don't be so hard on Bob, it's not his fault Mother Nature threw him a curve!
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Hey hurricane lover, you gonna come take your L? Lol Will you be more humble now?
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