History Tends To Repeat...

Tonight I'm ending my 73rd year on this planet and look forward to begin my 74th year tomorrow.  What some of that time has taught me is to never ignore past history, or you will be doomed to repeat it.  I say that remembering the hurricane season of 2002 when we had two late season major hurricanes, Isadore & Lili.

Isadore came first moving out of the Caribbean but lost her steering and turned southward into the northern Yucatan stalling for several days.  Even through her new track took her straight to Louisiana, her core was so disrupted that she was never able to regain hurricane strength.  A few weeks later came Lili.

   Lili was even stronger reaching a Cat. 4, however once she moved farther northward over cooler water, she quickly weakened down to a Cat. 1 at landfall.  The numbers 1,2,3 & 4 above are the dates in October, 2002.   Will history repeat?  Perhaps.

  Zack Fradella first used the above graphic Saturday morning on FOX 8 showing how much the northern Gulf has cooled from our recent cold fronts.  The bottom graphic was from this morning indicating that cooling was even more pronounced.  The northern Gulf environment is far different from 2-3 weeks ago during Hurricanes Laura & Lili.  It's no surprise to see Hurricane Delta get stronger over the warmest waters of the Caribbean.   It is expected to become a major Cat. 3 over the southern Gulf.  What I'm hoping is past history tells us these strong storms tend to weaken as they get over cooler & cooler waters.  Let's hope that's the case.

Now that Gamma has fallen apart, will it leave behind anything that will influence Delta?  Probably not, but what if Gamma's low pressure region lures Delta's track to turn more into the Yucatan?  Right now the NHC's center line says no.

That will be something to watch for tomorrow night.  IF it stays over the Yucatan Channel with little interaction with the Yucatan, then it will be a stronger storm.  The color satellite pic shows a very compact tight center and expect further strengthening over night into tomorrow,  Here's the latest NHC center line track.

Doesn't look much different from the 4 PM except there has been a slight nudge to the right (east).  You can only see that if you closely follow the center line.

The top graphic was from 4 PM while the bottom is from 10 PM.  Note the slight shift to the east over western Lake Pontchartrain.  Is that significant.  No.  But if that trend continues over the next couple of days, that could get the center to go to our east placing us on the weaker side of Delta.  RIGHT NOW, that is not the forecast.   My take is, if the past is any guidance, then Delta will weaken more than what NHC is predicting.  They still call for a Cat. 2 100 mph storm at landfall , and they may be correct.  I'm showing you some reason for hope with past storms.  IF we remain the bullseye, look for impacts late Thursday night along the coast spreading inland during the day on Friday.  We should have a better idea by Wednesday afternoon.  I will be out fishing ahead of the storm tomorrow and will post again Wednesday afternoon.   Keep watching the things (center line shift) I've focused on and don't get freaked out if Delta reaches Cat. 4 over the southern Gulf just like Lili did in 2002.  I'll be back before any impacts arrive.  Stay tuned!