Looking Like Gamma, But Not Yet...

Satellite views sure look like we have a Tropical Storm down in the western Caribbean, but NHC is holding off on upgrading TD 25 for now.  One reason is they lack data since the Recon aircraft had to turn around for mechanical issues.

The disturbance sure looks to be getting better organized and I suspect we'll have Gamma tonight or tomorrow.

The new NHC track is unchanged taking it over the tip of the Yucatan into the southern Gulf.  I'd like to see the track shift farther to the left (west) so that the circulation goes over more land areas hindering any strengthening.  Regardless, once back over the Gulf next week, Gamma is expected to slowly get stronger.

So soon to be Gamma looks to be the better organized system today, the disturbance/tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean may be the one to watch.  Models don't do much with the 1st system taking it down into the Bay of Campeche while models bring the second one farther north into the south central Gulf late next week.   For those of you still concerned about having a major (cat 3+) hurricane threaten the northern Gulf, let me show you a graphic Zack Fradella used on FOX 8 at noon.  It shows the Ocean Heat Content/Energy Potential that differs from just the surface water temps.

This clearly shows how the northern Gulf has cooled down from what it was like 2 weeks ago.  IF either of these disturbances did grow into a major hurricane down over the warmest waters of the Gulf & Caribbean, it has to weaken the farther north it goes much like Hurricane Opal in 1995.   In the short term, cold fronts keep coming and high pressure will block any movement towards us for the next 5 days.

Look at how low the dew points have dropped down to the Gulf coast.   That dry air with clear skies and lighter winds should allow tomorrow's lows to dip into the 40s North Shore and away from Lake P with 50s & 60s nearer the Lake.

Bottom line, this weekend looks to be exceptional locally.  Get out and enjoy some of the finest weather on our Planet.   Whatever forms down in the Caribbean and southern Gulf will be a slow mover with plenty of time to watch its movement.   Right now I'm not nervous at all.  I might update later tonight if there is new information.  Stay tuned!