The 4 AM NHC advisory indicated Delta is probably strengthening and models still forecast it to briefly become a Cat. 3 later today into Saturday. Recon aircraft has reported a 964 mb pressure that is 6 mb lower than the 4 AM update. My take is NHC will increase Delta's winds to at least 110 mph or higher at 10 AM. It sure looks like it is getting better organized over the warm waters of the western Gulf.
NHC may be waiting for an obvious eye to pop on satellite pictures, but that hasn't happened yet. Take a look at Laura's eye back in August just after landfall. Note where it came ashore.
The current NHC track has been nudged another 20 miles farther to the west placing the center line very close to Laura's.
My take is the center line track may keep trending farther to the west today based on the Euro's forecast and even VIPIR that bring Delta to the TX/LA. state line.
This is the last thing Lake Charles needed and I suggest we all keep them in our prayers. About all we will get is high tides/storm surge, but it should be no worse than Laura's or Sally's surges.
We are east of the heavy rain threat, but as Shelby pointed out this morning, we could see the "tail" of Delta pass over us predawn on Saturday with some briefly heavy squalls. Those of you to the west of Morgan City-Hammond-McComb will see greater impacts while those to the east will have fewer impacts. I guess the greatest concerns will be power outages west of NOLA once winds gust over 40+ tomorrow. Delta has slowed down slightly this morning, but it will not stall.
After Delta passes, there is no cold air coming on the backside and we'll stay warm into next week. Our next real front won't arrive until Thursday so it'll stay summer-like. I'll post again later this afternoon, unless there is a major shift in the track.. Stay tuned!
33 comments:
Thank you ��
Thank you!!
Thank you Bob!!
Keep up the great work. Great team between you and the Fox 8 weather team. A great marriage for Fox 8 to be reliant upon
I think I will take you to Thibodeaux to visit my momma. 🤪 you are just as professional as always. God Bless you!
Thanks Bob for these reports, it's good to have an experienced & trusted meteorologists input on these storms. Prayers for Western Louisiana residents, this is the last thing they needed.
First, I don't agree with the people personally insulting Bob. However, his recent forecasting deserves criticism. Criticism isn't a dirty word. Bob is not beyond getting it. The way some of you treat him like a demigod is a bit ridiculous.
We should note that in early forecasts for this storm, Bob was incredibly confident that this storm would not be much of a threat. He pretty much called for no more storms.
Now, meteorology is not a perfect science. A weather expert making wrong predictions is inevitable, no matter how good they are. Bob is not significantly worse or better than the others, but my issue is with the certainty with which he speaks, especially this time.
Sorry, I said he said no more storms, but he didn't say that exactly. He called for the lady to sing.
My friend recommended your blog to me yesterday. I didnt know you had one. You are such a familiar face and I am so glad you are still on the scene. My friend says she always looks at your blog and feels more comfortable with that than the local channels, although she appreciates their efforts. She said she trusts you alot. I remember as a little girl listening to Alec Gifford for Hurricane Betsy and he meant alot to me. I hope the hurricane disipates. I get so concerned sometimes. Thank you very much.
Thank you Bob! Hope your birthday was great, but SO glad you are back!
Good? Experienced? Trusted? Just last week he was on his soap box preaching that the Fat Lady had sung and any hurricane threats (later added major) were over for the year. What did I miss?
Bobs problem is he loves to dish out criticism to the NHC and local meteorologists but can’t take it himself when he screws it up and often does. Crazy thing is everyone believes he some king of tropics. Far from it. In a nutt shell he just gives every possible outcome of a storm and the claims victory when of course one is correct. My kid can do that.
Why? He said hurricane season was basically over last week. Surprise it’s not.
He said the Fat Lady did sing.
Thanks Bob. I think you're fantastic. To All u other know it all rude followers...if u don't like his style then quit following him.
Listen, all you naysayers. Bob was right about the Fat Lady. My next door neighbor is a rather portly, robust, lets say, zoftig woman. She's a real delight and a great neighbor. I heard her on her porch last week singing during the Saints game. So there... the Fat Lady did indeed sing!
Alphonce
Bucktown, USA
Bob. You're still the best!
Anonymous, I agree. I don't like the way he often presents himself as superior. Don't get me wrong, I like to hear his perspective. I'm not just reading his blog to accentuate
the negative. But I take the good with the bad, and when the bad comes up, it should be discussed.
I miss Carl Arredondo. He didn't sensationalize or downplay. Didn't try to make himself look superior. He talked about the uncertainty and he explained his thinking.
Jerry P, The cult like behavior some people have is concerning.
Thanks for the uodate
To Anonymous 1 and MacGuffin...please exchange email addresses so the rest of us don’t have to witness your negativity.
True, especially to rise above the juvenile sniping here by some!!
I think these negative people probably would have hated on Nash Roberts as well......
I totally agree!!!! So glad you have this blog
Delta is slowing down...I have been watching the speed since last night. 17mph to 15mph now t 1pm it down to 13mph. Didnt you say that was an issue for us??
Thank you!!!
Oh and there is another disturbance . Sorry but there is
Once it goes under 10 mph, then we’ll be in trouble. I can’t wait until the 10 pm update
Hurricane lover
There's nothing juvenile about addressing a huge folly in Bob's forecasting, especially when he was overconfident about it.
This was expected. Every meteorologist I've been watching said it would do this. at this point, there will be no major changes in track. The steering currents are strong.
No one is hating. They're pointing out an obvious flub. I don't have a problem so much with Bob making a mistake as much as I think it was irresponsible to be so certain in his absolutely wrong forecast.
Reality is negative sometimes. Deal with it. I'm not being unnecessarily negative. Grow up.
Thanks Bob for responding to my previous request to post the impacts of the storm in various geographic areas -- as they may vary. I appreciate it!
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