The Trend Is Not Our Friend...

A Recon plane has reached Delta and it's finding a stronger system that is almost a hurricane already.  The latest track from NHC doesn't look much different with some subtle changes.

Earlier center line track forecasts had it clipping the western tip of Cuba, but now they shifted it to clip the eastern tip of the Yucatan.  Because it now goes through the Yucatan Channel and not over land, their intensity forecasts follow computer guidance and they make it a Cat. 3  over the southern Gulf before slowly weakening it as it makes the turn to the north.  I still find that hard to believe since the central & northern Gulf are much cooler than 2-3 weeks ago.

The top graphic shows 2 models even take Delta to a Cat. 4 (131 mph+) while the bottom 2 have the oceanic heat content/energy potential with the middle one from Saturday with the bottom one from this morning.   I can see Delta becoming a major storm over the extreme southern Gulf, but I just think the cooler waters farther to the north will result in it weakening.  This will be a true test of the accuracy of model intensity.   They didn't do well with Sally after doing real well with Laura.  Now back to that track trend.

If you're watching a station that doesn't use the center line track, you wouldn't know or see this subtle shift to the west.  The top graphic was NHC's 1st advisory taking it just east of the CBD and Lake Pontchartrain with the 2nd about the same.  But then this morning and afternoon's tracks slightly move it farther to the west now coming over Morgan City and west of Lake P.  I don't want that to happen since that places us on the stronger side/greater impacts of Delta.   The Euro model has it even farther west over Lafayette.  Delta won't reach the Gulf until late Tuesday night and once it's clear of the Yucatan, I think models will really lock on to that future path.  Before then, what could happen?

Will the remains of Gamma (now a TD) have any influence?  The current forward motion is west at 8 mph and that could take Delta on the western side of the error cone into the Yucatan, which would impact its circulation.  Let's watch that forward motion for the next 24 hours.   For now, NHC keeps it over water through the Yucatan Channel.  This track is not much different than Hurricane Lili in early October 2002.   It became a powerful Cat. 4 down over the Gulf, but rapidly weakened as in approached the LA. coast making landfall as a Cat. 1.    That's my hope for Delta, or,  we start to see model shifts taking the storm back to the east so we get on the weaker side of the storm.  

Speaking of that cone of error, it extends from Beaumont in Texas to Pensacola, Florida.   IF you can avoid the eye wall winds & storm surge, impacts from a Cat. 1 or 2 will not require any evacuations except outside of our levee protection/risk reduction system.   I'm sure local emergency managers will start that process once Delta reaches the Gulf late tomorrow.   I'm confident the cooler northern Gulf will work its magic on Delta just like it did with Lili back in 2002.  Next post after 10 PM.  Stay tuned!