Friday, October 9, 2020

The Weakening Process has Begun...

The 7 AM advisory still has Hurricane Delta's peak winds at 120 mph (Cat. 3), but I believe that is generous based on ground truth observations.  NHC even mentioned when Delta passed RIGHT OVER a buoy in the western Gulf, the peak winds were 70 knots (85 mph).  In addition, the clearly defined eye from last night is gone.


Also, unlike previous storms this summer, Delta has the worse weather on its north and west sides.   Shelby Latino pointed that out on FOX 8 as VIPIR radar finds no rain on the east side.  That is totally different than Laura or Sally where they were "east side loaded".



That is why I think we'll end up with less than an inch of rain from Delta with the best chance happening over night as we finally seen the wrap around tail feeder band come through.  The heaviest rain totals will be confined to the path inland of Delta.

I have been very impressed with the computer models as, once Delta became stronger, they locked on to landfall over western Louisiana and have stayed the course.  Delta has made the turn and is now heading NNE at 12 mph.




The center line track keeps Lake Charles on the weaker side with the brunt of this storm hitting Jennings , Abbeville & Lafayette.   I am hoping this weakening process will have Delta down to a Cat. one at landfall with no one receiving the predicted 100 mph wind speeds.   I think we all are tired of dealing with Covid, hurricanes & heat.  Can't help with the virus, but I can start to get rid of the latter with cold fronts.



A cold front is just entering the U.S., but it's still many days away.  The real cold remains in Canada, but we'll start to see stronger fronts once we get into the 2nd half of October.   With Delta we are back into the deep tropical moisture with dew points back into the mid 70s.  Some lower dew points will filter in over the weekend, but temperatures will stay Summer-like into next week.  Next update before noon.  Stay tuned!


19 comments:

Melinda said...

Thank you Bob! Your updates are much appreciated.

Anonymous said...

Hurricane? Wait what happened to the Fat Lady singing. Hours from landfall and a major hurricane is approaching. Open mouth.. insert foot.

vickie williams said...

Thanks for you updates they always inform us to what is going on since we can not watch you on TV anymore miss you so much,

Anonymous said...

You should have been taught if you don't have nice things to say don't say anything. He has always been more right than wrong so go on with ya self. Thanks Bob for your updates. Most of us appreciate them!

Anonymous said...

He said no major LANDFALLING hurricanes

Anonymous said...

What happened to yesterday morning's prediction when you said the storm would go into the Texas line? Now you have a going into Lafayette. Once again your predictions just 6 hours before landfall might be correct. You are amazing

Anonymous said...

As always, I love your blogs, but I’m a little confused about this one. You state that unlike other storms, the rain is on the north and west side of the center line. But later you state that Lake Charles, which is on the west side of the center, is on the weaker side. I’m probably not interpreting this correctly, so will LC get lots of rain, or not? Thanks to anyone who can answer.

Anonymous said...

Do you have nothing better to do? If you don’t like his predictions, then stop following him. No one needs your negativity energy.

Anonymous said...

I THINK what he is saying is that Lake Charles will get more rain but on the “weaker side” with the wind.

Unknown said...

Go find a hole and crawl in it! He’s not God, but a terrific meteorologist.

Daniel said...

Fat lady has sung. This is why the storm is WEAKENING" before landfall. And, I might add, it is already weakened to not be a "major hurricane" and will not be one at LANDFALL. You say the same lie at every post.

bobbyc said...

Thanks Bob, appreciate the insight.

Anonymous said...

From: Bette
All of us living in this area KNOW what hurricane prediction's are. They are subject to change without notice. All weather casters do is predict what the current info shows! With hurricanes, there is NO guarantee it will stay that way! Each new report can change or remain the same as the one before! The actual facts are controlled by the storm NOT the meteorologist!
Bob does a great job of informing us of the facts when they are made known to him! Thanks Bob

Anonymous said...

To Matthew, the poor guy with the outside wedding today, I'm sorry but it looks like it might rain on your parade, I sure hope you have a backup!

Anonymous said...

My brother, Anonymous said, is just cherry picking pieces and parts of Bob's Blogs. Delta is doing exactly what Bob said it would do...weaken. Weather Channel has been breathless over Delta. Saying instead of cooler water "still relatively warm waters". Bob did not say "no more hurricanes" he in fact stated that we could have one but did not expect it to be a major one if it happened. My brother Anonymous is just butt hurt because bob beat him in golf and then went and caught more fish than him.

stu said...

Using the Fox8 hurricane radar, don't see that track turning NE yet. Still heading due north towards state line/Beaumont area. Seems as though if doesn't start the turn soon, it will make landfall further west.

France2107 said...

Thanks Bob, I'm a senior citizen and all I have is a computer at home. A friend got me started following your posts and I read others, but I always rely on yours to be ultimately correct. Thanks again...is that the Fat Lady singing???? lol

MJ said...

On the east side of storm near Baton Rouge/Denham Springs area. Over abundance of rain since yesterday evening. Coming down hard. I feel that Shelby Latino is no Bob Breck in the weather world since her theory of no rain would occur. We have had more rain from Delta than we did from Sally or Laura. Thanks for the updates bob!

MacGuffin said...

This is right, except the issue we or at least I have with what Bob said was his overconfidence in his ultimately wrong forecast. He likes to present his take as the better take rather than emphasizing uncertainty. Do one of us need to screen cap or link what he was saying so people understand why we have an issue?