Some models now indicate whatever is left of that circulation could keep going into the Pacific and never head back to the north. Many others keep showing a future track that could bring a tropical system back into the southern Gulf early next week. At the same time, an upper trough (cold core) will cut off over the NW Gulf. There are so many different things that could happen that I refuse to try and guess which one might happen.
As you can see, most of the models just leave it in the eastern Gulf west of Ft. Myers/Tampa. NONE bring it towards us, but I'm not sure what effect the approaching upper trough in the western Gulf might have? So we once again watch and wait knowing the Gulf is much cooler and the trough will bring increasing upper shear.
You can see the upper trough dipping down over the plains and how the Gulf waters north of 25 degrees are in the 70s.
3 comments:
Thanks Bob!
"At the same time, an upper trough (cold core) will cut off over the NW Gulf"
Bob, What does that mean? A cold front is coming and would block anything tropical?
Thanks
A.P.
Bucktown, USA
If you notice what happened with zeta. We had a cold front on the way that didn’t quite make it here in time. If it had, that upper level shear would have prevented zeta from strengthening into something big. It was literally 12 hours too late. What was very surprising was the strengthening itself. Now this is my theory on it and again, this is nothing but a theory as no one has the scientific answer. If you look at the earths axis, the sun rises from the East and sets on the west. We get a lot of our weather out of Texas because of the direction the earth spins and the reason why cold front don’t just travel south, they travel southeast. Hurricanes also don’t just travel north, as soon as it hits our gulf coast, it starts speeding up and turning East as well. I believe it was a combination of where the hurricane was positioned and where the front was positioned that allowed absolutely zero counter wind shear from the cold front and allowed the hurricane to develop which simply means that it does not take very high water temperatures for a hurricane to become strong in intensity. A good example would be if you’ve ever walked into a department or grocery store and at the entrance by the electronic doors there’s a device that blows air called an air curtain that separates the outdoor air from the indoor air and that’s what I believe the cool front acted like since it was miles away and worked as a divider between the hurricane and the cool front.
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