We Don't have a Clue...

I do read many of your comments and totally understand the "perception" that none of us meteorologists have a clue as to where Eta is going.  There is some truth to that since the track of Eta has not followed the NHC's center line future tracks very well.

To me the top pic doesn't have the center where the now symmetrical cloud pattern is and part of Eta's circulation is back over western Cuba.  NHC still believes Eta will slow down and stall over night through Tuesday before resuming a northward trek on Wednesday.

But look at the model guidance.  They are all over the place and Eta's cone(Shell Beach to Tampa!) shows it could go just about anywhere.  Hence, we don't have a clue!  it' called UNCERTAINTY and that is why meteorology is an inexact science compared to astronomy.  

Eta's structure has improved tonight at it tries to regroup its inner core down over the warmest waters of the Gulf.   An important take away from their discussion is EVEN IF Eta does come to the north, NHC weakens it to a depression long before it gets to land.  You can see all the dry air that surrounds Eta tonight.  In addition, a trough will be approaching from the west that will increase the upper shear plus the northern Gulf's SSTs are way cooler.  David showed several graphics that clearly indicate Eta will weaken.  Those of you who believe Eta will become a Zeta need to visit other blogs and post with those that share your fears.   You need not share your doom & gloom theories here.

Even with the election over, we remain a nation divided.  The eastern half is very warm while Winter has arrived out west.

My son Rob) in Longmont, Colorado sent me the bottom photo taken before the sun set.  Fresh snow looks pretty as it falls.   Since Eta is moving so slowly, I will be out fishing tomorrow and won't post again until Wednesday.  That should show you how worried (Not!) I am about Eta.  Don't get too excited if it strengthens back to a hurricane during the next 1-2 days.  It won't weaken until it leaves the warm waters of the southern Gulf and that won't happen until Thursday or Friday.  I do see cooler weather coming after this weekend.  Stay tuned!