Where Have All the Ducks Gone?

I was out fishing yesterday and noticed the lack of ducks in the marshes & ponds around Shell Beach.  We talked with several duck hunters going out to repair their duck blinds and they said opening weekend was good (not terrific), but since then the past several weeks are dead due to no ducks.  Where are the ducks? My thinking is still up north since it's cold weather and snow that bring them south in huge numbers in search for food.

Oh for sure Alaska has tuned cold (25-30 below) along with Canada, but come farther south into the U.S. and only the northern plains are below freezing.  My guess is the ducks are enjoying plenty of food in Kansas, Missouri, Arkansas and surrounding states.  That won't change until the upper pattern flips and an east coast upper trough develops.

 Great news for you Ducksters because that trough is coming.  The top graphic is today's 500 mb (18,000') flow which is basically west to east, but look at the bottom one which has a sharp East coast/Great Lakes trough on Nov. 30th.  This would drive that Canadian cold into the lower 48 including us for the beginning of December.

There is a weak cold front that will stagger through for early next week, but the real Arctic Blast comes the following weekend.   Until then, we'll be spring-like (70s) with much higher dew points back into the 60s.   For Thanksgiving Day, it'll be very mild (70s) and it looks mostly dry.  So cold weather along with the ducks will be coming soon.

Finally, it is so nice not to have to worry about the Tropics anymore.  Only the extreme southern Gulf and Caribbean have water temperatures warm enough to support tropical formation, but it's the increase in upper wind shear that will take any system away from us.  I still expect one or two more named storms before 2020 is done.  The season may end on November 30th, but don't be surprised to see a December storm.  Enjoy your weekend and stay tuned!