We are currently enjoying a break from our recent cold snap, but when warm air returns, sometimes so does a severe weather threat. That is what SPC (Storm Prediction Center) is indicating could happen over the Gulf South Thursday into Friday.
The upper pattern will turn favorable for severe weather as the 3 graphics show. Right now there is a deep trough over the Rockies & West Coast. On Wednesday that trough kicks eastward and has a spoke of energy/vorticity far south over the Rio Grande. that should be the trigger for a line of strong storms to develop ahead of our next cold front. The bottom graphic has the energy lifting out into Missouri on Friday, but another, smaller "vort max" follows back over New Mexico. That could keep clouds and lingering showers into Friday/New Years Day.
We have a complex pattern developing with the first storm lifting out across the Plains towards the Great Lakes. Heavy snows are making for difficult travel over many states. It's the 2nd upper energy that will swing around and cause the severe weather threat across the South late on Thursday.
Low level Gulf moisture has been slow to return, but 60+ dew points are showing up in south Texas. RIGHT NOW, the timing for severe storms appears to be after dark on New Year's Eve (8 PM-2 AM).It doesn't mean we will definitely get some severe storms, but there will be the POTENTIAL for that to develop. We'll know more by tomorrow afternoon so stay tuned!
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