Severe Weather Threat Increasing for Thursday PM...

Yesterday I mentioned we could see a threat for severe storms on Thursday and, according to the SPC (Storm Prediction Center), our threat level has increased from marginal (level 2) to enhanced (level 3).

The set up is not quite ideal, but there is a lot of upper energy/vorticity racing out of a deep west coast trough.  The top graphic is the SPC predictio with the next 4 maps being the upper air flow.  The 1st upper map as this morning's flow with the next one being valid for 6 PM Thursday.  Note the bright yellow spot over South Texas.  That is the 1st upper low kicking out that will result in a split flow over us.  That split will create strong lifting of the air across us and all of the Gulf South.  I expect SPC will be issuing many Tornado Watches so keep up on the weather tomorrow afternoon and evening.  The next Graphic is valid for 6 pm Friday with that upper low over Illinois with another, weaker one coming near El Paso.  Finally the bottom graphic is valid for 6 PM Saturday with the axis of the upper trough now to our east.

There will be a threat for some heavy rainfall (1-2"), but according to the Weather Prediction Center, the heaviest rains will be to our west and east during the next 3 days.

The airmass behind this next front is seasonally cold, but it is not a bitterly cold Arctic blast.  Although Ch. 4 out of Denver had a story saying South Park (south of Breckenridge) reported minus 50 degrees this morning!  Obviously that is a location high up in the Rockies.

Dew points have returned to 60+ and that indicates low level moisture is increasing.   Let's tell our family and friends about the POTENTIAL for some strong to severe storms here tomorrow.  I see 2 waves coming with the first around 2 PM and the second around 8 PM.  The good news is our weekend will turn sunny, cooler and drier as we begin 2021.  Stay tuned!