So Nice Now, But Is Payback coming?

I've often said that the weather is hardly ever "normal", but swings from one extreme to another.  If that's the case (It may not be), our current week of terrifically mild mid December weather will flip to a more colder pattern.   There are signs that the chill will come in stages.

The top graphic is today's 500 mb (18,000') flow with the bottom valid for Dec. 23rd.  note the shift from West coast trough to East coast trough.   That would support the forecast for a switch from a mild early December to a colder, snowier late December.

The current western trough has several disturbances that are finally bringing much welcomed rain and snowfalls to the western states.   As that trough shifts to the east, there will be a couple of significant storms develop along the battleground between cold and warm air.  Models are hinting a a real East Coast snowstorm NEXT weekend, not this weekend when the Saints are in Philadelphia.

There is plenty of super cold building up in Alaska (=25-35 below) and Canada (20=30 below) that will be drawn down into the lower 48 IF that East coast trough becomes reality.  We shall see.

The current surface map has a cold front over Texas that will stagger towards us tomorrow.  a weak band of showers should move through early in the day, but there will be little cooler behind this front.  A stronger front arrives Sunday night into Monday that will chase away the 70s & bring back sweaters and jackets for next week.   The real chill will come Christmas Week IF that East coast trough develops.  Models have gone colder & snowier (not us) for most of the Great lakes & Northeast so Santa's ride to the south should be an easy one.  Many have asked about the weather for viewing the "Christmas Star" event on the 21st?  How many days away is that?  10?   Enough said.  Too far away to know sky cover.  As my headline said..."is payback coming?"   I'm thinking absolutely.  Could turn out to be a December to remember?  Stay tuned!   Oh for you Buckeye fans...you did not beat Michigan this year!  He-He!