I mentioned yesterday about the upper pattern shift that has a large trough over the western states. It has brought some much needed rain/snow to the Rockies and is beginning to fire off some big storms over the Central Plains. Unfortunately, this trough will be a slow mover and it might take until Sunday before it's by us.
There is a surge of low level moisture (Dew Points above 70+) streaming ahead of this system and models are showing a large area will be under a severe threat for the next 2 days with rainfall amounts topping 3-5"
The first 3 graphics are from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) with the top valid for today, the next one is for Wednesday with the next being valid on Thursday. Notice we are never in a severe threat. The bottom graphic is total rainfall for the next 5 days with a large swath of 3-5"+ amounts.
The battle ground is setting up across the Plains where warm air (Chicago is 80+) is surging to the north while cold air covers much of the West.
My concern is not for Wednesday or Thursdayduring the day here. It's Thursday night into Friday into Sunday when we could get into a prolonged period of rain that lingers well behind the cold front.
Right now, FOX 8 is ending the rains on Friday, but I'm not totally sure since the upper trough remains to our west. We'll look at it again tomorrow and hopefully the earlier drier weekend proves to be reality. Stay tuned!
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