Rainy Pattern Will Linger Through This Weekend...

Now that we have reached June, it will rain somewhere every day across the deep South just due to daytime heating bubbling up spotty storms.  A "normal" day will see rain coverage of 30-40%.  However, if you have any upper disturbances around, rain chances go way up.  That's exactly what we have as an upper trough is moving to our north leaving behind a "cutoff" upper low in Texas.

If you look under the upper ridge over the West, you find little, if any rain showers.  However, to the south and east of that trough we find many bands of rain.

What concerns me is the models are forecasting very little movement of the cutoff low through the weekend, which means the potential for some excessive rain totals.

The top graphic is from this morning showing the upper low back over Mexico. The middle is valid for midday on Saturday with the upper low in Texas with the bottom valid for midday on Monday with the low finally lifting out into Arkansas.   That's 3-4 days of above normal/average rain chances.

The bullseye for heaviest amounts has shifted more into Louisiana and east Texas.  Some totals could be as high as 5-10".  If that's spread out over many days, flooding should be minor.  But we all know our pumping capacity limitations and if we get 3-5" within a couple of hours, we'll see street flooding or worse.

There is a benefit of all the clouds and showers and that is temperatures are less hot.   In fact, I don't see us reaching 90 until late next week.    Hey, for you Tropical Geeks, I did see the GFS indicating something might try to form east of Florida in the 10-12 day time frame.

The top graphic is valid for June 14th while the bottom satellite view is today showing nothing is there.  You can start to get nervous if you want, but we'll see many times this season where models show something in the 10-14 day time frame and then nothing happens.  Until I can see something to follow, I don't get concerned nor so should you.  Finally...

I showed you what a Shell Beach sunrise looks like.  Well, the two trout that 82 year old Johnny Lewis and I are holding up measured 20" (2-3 lbs).  Our boat Captain was Hylton Petit who hooked the biggest fish of the day, a nearly 3 foot alligator gar.  We didn't catch many trout but those we kept were quality size.  Stay tuned Gang!