Elsa Nearing Cuba, Landfall This Afternoon...

This is a quick midday update that has no surprises.  Tropical Storm Elsa has been on a remarkably well behaved track that NHC basically predicted 5 days ago.  The very 1st advisory had Elsa moving up the west coast of Florida just offshore from St. Pete/Tampa.  The 10 am advisory today has nudged that track slightly to the west, but not by much.

There remains an old frontal boundary that has pushed down into the Gulf and that is where Elsa is headed.

Cuba will get a good soaking today with Florida next in line.  As I mentioned in my last post, I'm hoping Elsa's circulation will bring us some drier air resulting in fewer daily storms later this week.  We don't need anymore rain right now.  Elsa will not bomb into a major storm over the Gulf as the farther north she goes, the more SW upper wind shear will take control.  I'll update again after 4 pm.  Stay tuned!