Elsa Over Cuba, Heading Towards SE Gulf...

We never like any tropical systems in the Gulf, but Tropical Storm Elsa will get there later tonight.  This time we need not worry as there are strong upper WSW winds over the northern Gulf that will turn Elsa away from us.  Here's the latest NHC track that has remained remarkably consistent for days.

The bottom 2 pictures are the radars out of Cuba that has the center now inland.  The NHC forecast track keeps Havana on the weaker side of Elsa.

But the track off the west coast of Florida means the stronger/wetter side of Elsa will soak most of that state.  We will not see any impacts from Elsa, especially as she turns towards the East coast.

The frontal boundary along the Gulf coast is losing its identity as dew points in the 50s (dry air) have retreated with 65-70 DPs surging back up into Kentucky.   We continue very soupy with deep tropical moisture in place that allows intense daytime downpours to develop.

The benefit of these storms can be seen in the cooler temperatures in the 70s.  MSY picked up a fast 1.68" in less than an hours.  As Elsa lifts up the East Coast later this week, that should allow the Atlantic Ridge to build back westward decreasing our shower chances and increasing our heat.

I think many of us are ready to deal with the heat if it means we'll be drier with more sunshine.  I salute NHC for producing what appears to be an exceptionally accurate forecast of Elsa from birth to future death out over the Atlantic.   If all future storms would behave so well.  Stay tuned!